If I told you there was a state that, on Tuesday, voted strongly in favor of propositions to establish a $15 minimum wage, mandatory paid sick leave, and the right to have an abortion, what color would you picture for this state on the electoral map? Probably some shade of blue, right?
You’d be surprised to learn that on the same night that this state, Missouri, voted for all of those measures, which were supported by Kamala Harris, it voted for Donald Trump — by a margin of nearly 20 points.
Solving the conundrum of how a deep red state voted for blue proposals while electing a red president is one of the many questions Democrats need to answer as they try to plot their return – or, some say, rebuild – after losing to Trump in a landslide on Tuesday night.
Here are 3 things for Democrats to think about:
1. Trump – and Trumpism – are features, not flukes, of American society. After 2016, it was possible to believe that Trump, who lost the popular vote and seemed as surprised as anyone to have won the presidency, was an aberration, an accident who made it to the White House because of, say, “Russian meddling” or the quirks of the Electoral College. Then, after he lost in 2020 and the “red wave” failed to sweep through the 2022 midterms, it seemed even more like Trump’s moment might have passed.
But now, after winning not only the Electoral College but also the popular vote on a night when the GOP retook the Senate and possibly the House, it should be clear that Trump is no temp.
2. Know your audience. As the Missouri example shows, some aspects of progressive politics — in particular, the economic aspects of a stronger social safety net and better protections for workers — are popular among broad swaths of working-class and middle-class voters. Other aspects of progressive politics — namely social justice-oriented ideas about race and gender — seem less overtly popular outside of academia, activist circles, and liberal-oriented media.
Here’s where the Democrats, increasingly seen as a party of the educated elite rather than the broader working class, have a problem. How do you consistently win over — or keep from alienating — enough people who are more interested in finding jobs than exploring genders? Balancing the higher calling of social justice with the practical realities of electoral politics is perhaps the biggest challenge of all for the Democrats. It does no good to be on the “right side of history” if you are on the wrong side of elections.
3. Ethnic identity is not electoral destiny. For years, Democrats believed in the idea that as America got “browner,” the government would inevitably get “bluer.” That is, as the non-white population steadily grew, the Democrats’ structural advantages would deepen. So much for all of that.
To be clear, Democrats still won the largest minority votes — Blacks and Latinos — but by smaller margins than in any election in recent memory. The swing was particularly large among Black and Latino men, who were swayed rightward by concerns about the economy, undocumented immigration, and, it has to be said, Trump’s success in framing progressivism as something that emasculates men. MAGA, meanwhile, honors them.
There is, of course, nothing inevitable or permanent about the redward swing of some Black and brown voters. They could well be won over again in the next cycle, especially now that Latinos accounted for nearly half of all first-time voters in 2024, by 2028 there will be five million more. But that’s precisely the point: The shift rightward is by no means permanent, but the increasing independence of the Latino electorate most certainly is.
But take heart, power is fleeting these days. If there is one thing we know about contemporary politics in the world’s leading democracies, it’s that voters are fickle and incumbents rarely enjoy honeymoon periods for long. Yes, Trump cruised to victory by giving the finger to those in power, but soon enough, he will be in power and the fist will be raised in his direction.
But who will do the fist-shaking, and what will be their message? The midterms are just two years away, and the clock is ticking.
Let us know if and how you think Democrats should shake things up to be competitive in the next electoral cycle. If you include your name and location, we may publish part of your response in an upcoming Daily.
