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Sophia Burke
Sophia Burke is joining us this summer as our GZERO intern working with the newsletter and media team. She is off to Buenos Aires in the fall to study at the Universidad Católica Argentina and then heads back to Tulane University to wrap up her final semester, where she is pursuing a degree in Political Science/International Development and Spanish.
Presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian speaks during a campaign event in Tehran, Iran, June 19, 2024.
Iranians head to the polls on Friday to vote in a surprisingly competitive election that could see a reformist and more West-friendly candidate assume the presidency. The election season began in June when the Guardian Council approved six candidates in the wake of President Ebrahim Raisi’s death, but now only four remain, with three front-runners: conservative hardliners Saeed Jalili and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and reformist Masoud Pezeshkian.
The regime now wants Qalibaf or Jalili to bow out so as not to split the conservative vote, which would benefit Pezeshkian, who appears to be leading. But neither man is willing to step down. The polls favor Jalili, while Qalibaf, a former military officer, has the backing of the influential IRGC, highlighting the deepening factionalism within the conservative regime.
The divided conservative vote could very well result in Friday’s election failing to produce a clear winner, which would lead to a runoff, likely between Pezeshkian and a conservative.
What could most impact the vote? High voter turnout is key to Pezeshkian prevailing, but amid rising voter apathy, turnout is expected to be about 50%. In past elections, conservative voters have gone to the polls in mass numbers to rally behind their candidate, whereas reformist and disillusioned Iranians, Pezeshkian’s voter base, usually stay home in protest.
What would a Pezeshkian-led Iran look like? Likely not very different. Eurasia Group Iran expert Gregory Brew says that even if Pezeshkian wins, “The parliament, judiciary, military, and other parts of the regime will still be dominated by hard-liners — in that sense, Friday's election or next week’s runoff won’t change much.”
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Moldova's President Maia Sandu and President of the European Council Charles Michel attend a joint press conference, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine November 21, 2023.
The European Union has expanded to the East in recent years, but some would-be members remain in line to join the club.
On Tuesday, Ukraine and Moldova finally began talks to join the European Union after applying for membership within weeks of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. (Ironically, it was Ukrainian protests over their president’s failure to sign a trade agreement with Europe that triggered the uprising that led Vladimir Putin to invade Crimea in 2014.)
Eager to encourage them, the EU has “fast-tracked” their processes, but aligning with the union’s dozens of policy requirements takes time. (Just ask Turkey, now entering its 20th year of talks.) Ukraine must also contend with efforts by Hungary’s government, Russia’s best European friend, to block Kyiv’s bid to join both the EU and NATO.
But the EU isn’t the only club open for new memberships. The eurozone, a monetary union comprised of 20 member states, told EU members Bulgaria and Romania they haven’t yet cleared the hurdles needed to adopt the euro. Bulgaria is close; of all the needed economic criteria, its high inflation is the only remaining barrier to entry. Romania must do much more to tame inflation, bribery, money laundering, and Russian influence on its policymaking.
Former Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff of Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov talk in December 2023. Both men now face ICC warrants for alleged war crimes.
2: The ICC on Tuesday issued arrest warrants for two key Russian military officials, former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. The men stand accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity for their alleged involvement in strikes against Ukraine. Russia responded to the charges, calling them “null and void” – and, like Vladimir Putin, neither is expected to make the trip to The Hague anytime soon.
6 million: South Sudan, the world’s youngest country, is now home to the world’s largest mammal migration, with a new aerial wildlife survey showing roughly six million antelopes on the move. While the country is struggling amid a devastating civil war, the antelopes have become a source of national pride, and President Salvador Kiri Mayardit hopes totransform the “wildlife sector into a sustainable tourism industry.”
2,000: The World Health Organization says the closure of the Rafah crossing on the Gaza-Egypt border means at least 2,000 patients in need of medical evacuation have been left stranded. The crossing, closed amid Israel’s military operation in Rafah last month, is crucial for humanitarian aid distribution and evacuations, and its reopening is a point of concern in talks between US, Egyptian, and Qatari officials.
16: Will the price of espresso soon jolt you awake more than the coffee? Vietnam, the world’s second-biggest coffee producer, isexperiencing one of its worst droughts in years, which is expected to cause up to a 16% drop in coffee bean production. But so far, coffee bean inflation is hovering around just 1.6% in the EU – so no jitters yet. Vietnamese farmers are enjoying the price surge and are optimistic that new farming practices can help manage the heat wave.
30: US Surgeon General Vivek Murthy issued an advisory on Tuesdaydeclaring gun violence a public health crisis because the growing number of suicides and homicides caused gun-related deaths to reach a 30-year high in 2021. Murthy referred to the devastating mental and physical toll that gun violence has had on US communities and called for stricter gun regulation and the banning of automatic rifles.
14.5 million: Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman on Tuesday was defeated in the most expensive House primary in US history. Bowman, a progressive and member of the "Squad," lost to moderate George Latimer in New York's 16th Congressional District in a race that put a spotlight on the Democratic party's deep divisions over Israel and the war in Gaza. Bowman has been a fierce critic of Israel and has faced allegations of antisemitism in the process. AIPAC, a pro-Israel lobbying group, spent roughly $14.5 million on ads — via its PAC, United Democracy Project — in an effort to unseat Bowman.
Florida Panthers celebrate beating the Edmonton Oilers in game seven of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final at Amerant Bank Arena.
2: The Florida Panthers won their first Stanley Cup Monday night after beating the Edmonton Oilers 2-1 in the Panthers' hometown of Sunrise, Florida, outside Miami. It was a devastating blow for Canadian fans, who had watched the Oilers claw their way back after the Panthers established an early 3-0 series lead. The incredible tiebreaker ended with the Panthers on top – and with the Stanley Cup staying in the US for the 31st consecutive year.
30: Conservative candidate Don Stewart’svictory Monday in Toronto-St. Paul’s, a Liberal stronghold for over 30 years, signals significant voter discontent with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s handling of issues like the housing crisis, inflation, and the war in Gaza. This upset raises questions about Trudeau’s leadership and suggests huge vulnerabilities for the Liberals ahead of next year's election as similar vote swings could jeopardize what were once assumed to be “safe” seats.
3: Almost three months after the cargo ship Dali crashed into and collapsed the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, the ship is nowheaded to Virginia for repairs. The Dali lost power on March 23, causing it to veer off course into the bridge, claiming the lives of six construction workers, and destroying the Baltimore bridge, a $1.9 bil and four-year restoration project.
22: A fire in a lithium battery factory outside of Seoulkilled 22 workers, mostly Chinese migrants, and injured eight on Monday. Authorities suspect the fire – one of the country’s deadliest in recent years – erupted because of an explosion in the plant containing roughly 35,000 batteries and have opened an investigation.
5: Insider betting is a no-no. A fifth Tory is now under investigation for allegedly placing bets on the date of the July 4 UK election – before Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made the announcement. The allegations mean more negative press for the beleaguered Conservative leader, who is facing calls to suspend the party figures being investigated.
1,926: Islamophobic crimes more thandoubled in Germany last year, according to the lobbying group Claim – totaling 1,926 criminal cases, more than 1,000 over 2022. Claim noted a significant spike in Islamophobic-motivated crimes following the Oct. 7 attack, with over 60% of 2023’s attacks falling in the last three months of the year.
The Iranian flag flutters in front of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) organisation's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, June 5, 2023.
Iran’s Guardian Council approved six candidates – five hardliner conservatives and one seemingly safe reformist – earlier this month to run in a June 28 snap election to replace President Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a plane crash last month. The council’s inclusion of reformist Masoud Pezeshkian surprised many, but even more shockingly, he has proven an unlikely but fierce competitor against prominent right-wing opponents. Pezeshkian is drawing support from younger voters and disillusioned Iranians who, in years past, boycotted elections. Meanwhile, the conservative vote is being split among the five other candidates.
On the campaign trail, Pezeshkian has shared his intention of improving relations with the US – namely by reviving the 2015 nuclear deal – and softening Iran’s hijab law, both of which would constitute dramatic shifts in policy. Although his growing popularity worries leaders in Iran’s far-right government, even a reformist president is unlikely to bring about much change within the country’s hard-right government – especially a budding friendship with the US.
“If the challenge of winning the election seems large,” says Eurasia Group’s Iran expert, Gregory Brew, “the even greater challenge would be governing effectively as a reformist president – a challenge previous Iranian presidents, such as Mohammed Khatami and Hasan Rouhani, have largely failed to overcome.”
So could the US have a new friend in Iran? Short answer: probably not.
Pezeshkian faces a tough battle to beat hardline conservatives (and also Iran’s most dedicated voters), and the greatest opposition does not come from the people, but the Iranian government.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Pemmy Majodina of the ANC attend a swearing-in ceremony into the National Assembly in Cape Town, South Africa June 14, 2024.
South Africa officially has a unity government, marking a historic shift in the political makeup of the Rainbow Nation.
The African National Congress, which lost its 30-year outright majority in last month's election, reached an agreement Friday to form a coalition with the Democratic Alliance, its primary rival. The lawmakers also reelected South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa.
“Today, South Africa is a better country than it was yesterday. For the first time since 1994, we've embarked on a peaceful and democratic transfer of power to a new government that will be different from the previous one,” said DA leader John Steenhuisen.
The coalition also includes the Inkatha Freedom Party, but former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe, or MK party, despite winning 15% of the vote, boycotted negotiations – as did the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters.
Given the makeup and opposition to this fragile coalition, this is the dawn of an uncertain political era for the country. We’ll be keeping an eye on whether these unlikely legislative partners manage to hold the coalition together.
What do Americans and Canadians really think of one another? What do they make of their governments and of each other’s? Whom would they vote for in each other’s elections? Do they share concerns about key challenges like, say, artificial intelligence, and what do they think about Israel’s war in Gaza?
Ahead of our landmark US-Canada Summit earlier this week, we teamed up with the Montréal-based pollster Data Sciences to find out. Their team asked 2,340 folks on both sides of the border what they really think. Here’s a selection of key findings, by the numbers.
68: What’s the most important aspect of US-Canada ties? 68% of Americans and Canadians say it’s the economy and trade. Security and defense ties came in a close second, but fewer than half thought culture or personal ties were very important. We did not ask about hockey.
70: Things aren’t going great … Huge majorities on both sides of the border are heading into their upcoming elections – in November for the US and before October 2025 in Canada – with negative sentiments. A whopping 70% of both Canadians and Americans are “frustrated” with their federal governments.
26: Still, Canadians are keener to kick out their current government than Americans. Just 26% of Canucks would vote for the incumbent Liberals, whereas Americans are more split – 47% would vote for Trump and 45% would vote for Biden.
21: Even good-natured Canada isn’t safe from America’s partisan splits. There is a 21-point difference between the percentage of Biden voters who see Canada as a “partner” (82%) and the share of Trump voters who say the same (61%). But who, we wonder, are the 2-3% of both candidates’ voters who view Canada as an outright “enemy”? What did Canada do to hurt you?
72: The robots are coming, and 72% of Americans and Canadians are somewhat or very concerned about the rise of artificial intelligence, with almost half worried that a robot or machine could do some or most of their jobs.
25: Canadians are more pro-Palestinian than Americans. Asked whom they sympathize more with, 25% of Canadians said the Palestinians against just 16% who listed the Israelis. South of the border, the views were almost exactly flipped, with 16% of Americans saying they felt more for the Palestinians, while 29% said the Israelis.Myanmar military troops take part in a military exercise at Ayeyarwaddy delta region in Myanmar, February 3, 2018.
Myanmar’s military has begun expelling residents from villages surrounding Rakhine’s state capital Sittwe in response to threats from the rebel Arakan Army. The junta is reportedly moving into these villages, planting landmines, and bombing roads that lead into the city to inhibit the AA’s advances as it takes an increasingly defensive stance in its three-year-old civil war. The military has also been accused of murdering 76 people and burning down villages on the outskirts of Sittwe, allegations it denies.
Rakhine is home to the overwhelmingly Buddhist country’s largest Muslim population, which has been subjected to ethnic cleansing in recent years, and the state has once again become a hotbed for escalating ethno-religious violence. The AA, a largely Buddhist rebel group, launched a major offensive seven months ago and has allied itself with other ethnic militias nationwide. They’ve made great advances, capturing nine of the 17 Rakhine townships.
What we’re watching: Will the military be able to hold on against the AA? The capture of Sittwe would be a devastating loss for the junta – it would be the first state capital to come under rebel control, representing a major morale victory for the embattled rebels.
The military seems scared of the prospect.They’ve recently been entering refugee camps across the Bangladesh border to forcefully recruit Rohingya Muslims, a group they once massacred, in a desperate bid to augment their bruised military.