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Days are numbered for Biden’s executive order
Trump hasn’t given many details about how exactly he’ll rejigger the regulatory approach to AI, but he has promised to repeal President Joe Biden’s executive order on AI, which tasked every executive department and agency with developing common-sense rules to rein in AI while also exploring how they can use the technology to further their work. At a December 2023 campaign rally in Iowa, Trump promised to “cancel” the executive order and “ban the use of AI to censor the speech of American citizens on day one.” (It’s unclear what exactly Trump was referring to, but AI has long been used by social media companies for content moderation.)
The states will be in charge of regulating AI
Megan Shahi, director of technology policy at the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank, said that a deregulatory approach by the Trump administration will cause a patchwork system that’ll be difficult for AI companies to comply with.
“This can be beneficial for some Americans living in states willing to pass regulation, but harmful for others without it,” she said. “The hope is that states set a national standard that AI companies seek to universally comply with, but that is unlikely to be a reality right away at least.”
While Trump himself is likely to be hands-off, she expects him to “entrust a team of his trusted allies”— such as Tesla and X CEO Elon Musk — “to do much of the agenda setting, decision making, and execution of the tech agenda.”
Will Trump reverse Biden’s chip crackdown?
Matt Mittelsteadt, a research fellow at the libertarian Mercatus Center at George Mason University, said he expects export controls on chips aimed at curbing China’s ability to compete on AI to continue. And while he thinks it’s a harmful idea, he believes a Republican unified government could enact controls on AI software — especially following reports that China used Meta’s open-source Llama models for military purposes.
The biggest change is Trump’s proposed tariffs on China. “For AI, the use of tariffs to either attempt to ‘punish China’ or reshore industry could be an industry killer,” Mittelsteadt said. “AI hardware depends on materials either not found or manufactured in the United States and no amount of trade protection will ‘reshore’ what cannot be reshored. The only possible result here will be financial strain that is bound to tighten the belts of Silicon Valley and yield a resulting decrease in research and development spend.”
This could give China a strategic advantage: “At this critical moment in the ‘AI race’ with China, such restrictions could represent a generational leapfrog opportunity for China’s tech sector.”
In the coming weeks, Trump will announce his Cabinet selections — the earliest indication of how he’ll handle AI and a litany of other crucial policy areas. Personnel is policy, after all. How quickly he can get them confirmed will impact how quickly he can unwind Biden’s orders and chart a new path, especially with a first 100 days agenda that’s likely to be jam-packed. Will AI make the cut or fall by the wayside? Trump hasn’t even been sworn in yet, but the clock is already ticking.
AI-generated cyber threats have C-suite leaders on edge.
The Biden administration is planning to support a controversial United Nations treaty on cybercrime, which will be the first legally binding agreement on cybersecurity.
The treaty would be an international agreement to crack down on child sexual abuse material, or CSAM, and so-called revenge porn. It would also increase information-sharing between parties of the treaty, increasing the flow of evidence the United States, for one, has on cross-border cybercrime. This will also make it easier to extradite criminals.
But the treaty has faced severe pushback from advocacy groups and even Democratic lawmakers. On Oct. 29, six Democratic US senators, including Tim Kaine and Ed Markey, wrote a letter to the Biden administration saying they fear the treaty, called the UN Convention Against Cybercrime, could “legitimize efforts by authoritarian countries like Russia and China to censor and surveil internet users, furthering repression and human rights abuses around the world.” They said the treaty is a threat to “privacy, security, freedom of expression, and artificial intelligence safety.”
The senators wrote that the Convention doesn’t include a needed “good-faith exception for security research” or a “requirement for malicious or fraudulent intent for unauthorized access crimes.” This runs afoul of the Biden administration’s executive order on AI, which requires “red-teaming” efforts that could involve hacking or simulating attacks to troubleshoot problems with AI systems. The UN will vote on the Convention later this week, but even if the United States supports it, it would need a two-thirds majority in the US Senate — a difficult mark to achieve — to ratify it.Flags of Taiwan and the US.
The US Department of Commerce ordered Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company to stop shipping advanced chips to Chinese customers starting yesterday, Monday, Nov. 11. The government sent a letter to TSMC specifying that this restriction applies to all chips that are seven nanometers or smaller, which can be used to power artificial intelligence models.
Just weeks ago, TSMC notified the Commerce Department that it found that chips it produced were used inside of a Huawei processor. Huawei is a Chinese tech giant subject to stringent US trade restrictions. In response, TSMC cut off Sophgo, a Chinese chip designer that used its fabrication facilities to make the Huawei chip in question.
In Oct. 2022, the Biden administration announced stringent export controls against chips flowing into China. But there wasn’t an all-out ban, explains Xiaomeng Lu, director of Eurasia Group’s geo-technology practice. “US suppliers could seek a sales license to sell to Chinese buyers and sometimes they do get approved — this is the nature of [the] export control regime,” she said. “They are not blank bans.”
But now, TSMC, a strategic corporate partner of the US government, will be barred from all Chinese sales under the new export control rules. “It is possible that TSMC has sought these licenses and offered green lights [to bypass the rules],” Lu said. “Conversely, they have failed to comply with US rules and were caught doing so.”
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. Everyone, of course, talking about the incoming Trump administration. What it's going to mean in terms of personnel and in terms of policy. The latter, more important, but informed very significantly by the former. Couple of things I would say.
First of all, on the personnel side, clearly most important point here and very different from the first administration is that loyalty matters immensely. Trump is angriest not at Democrats, angriest at people that used to work for him who have now flipped, who are calling him a fascist. Some of the worst things that have been said about Trump in the first administration came from senior people that he put in that weren't loyal. They may have been long-term establishment Republicans and adults, but now he couldn't be bothered with them in the slightest and wants them to know it.
And that's why nobody really expected, that was talking to the Trump team, that Pompeo or Haley were going to be appointed. But the fact that Trump came out immediately before even making other appointments to a cabinet and saying, "No, you two, thanks, but no thanks. You can go get on with the rest of your lives." Because he sees them as not loyal. Nikki said all sorts of horrible things about Trump, and Pompeo was feeling around with other candidates and didn't endorse until way too late. And Trump was angry about that at the time, and he holds that grudge.
So you're going to see a team that I think is much more consolidated around Trump. And that doesn't mean there won't be different constellations, groups of people that are more aligned with each other, but when Trump has something he wants done, everyone's going to run alongside him.
And I think that's true for JD Vance too. The idea that there's going to be a shadow cabinet that is run by Vance, and he's the Project 2025 guy. No, if that happens, Trump will be angry. If there's any large meeting internally, Trump wants to be the star. And he expects Vance to do his bidding and to be effective at it and to run other things that he doesn't care as much about. And that is, I think, the role that Vance will play.
Is it going to be more populist on some issues? Sure, but not necessarily on as many as you'd think. Why? Because there are going to be a lot of billionaires who are interested in their business interests, their investment interests around the Trump team. There will be CEOs. There'll be a lot of people that aren't globalists in name; they've been thoroughly repudiated, but globalists in more policy than you would think.
Now here, China policy is extremely interesting because on the one hand, Trump really wants to see higher tariffs on China and has talked about that. Robert Lighthizer, who was US trade rep for Trump last time around, very professional, very capable in that role, clearly playing a very significant role in running trade and maybe other things economically for Trump this time around. He is pushing for more jobs in the United States, more investment in the United States, decoupling from China. Very comfortable with a new Cold War between the US and China.
You know who isn't? Elon Musk. Has massive investments on the ground in China, wants a more comfortable relationship there, and has basically told the Chinese that he's very interested in helping to be an interlocutor. Kissinger is dead. And the one person who's out there that could be a conduit of information and potentially better relations between the two most powerful countries in the world is Elon. Will he be effective? A technology policy is kind of interesting because Trump first time around didn't do technology policy. Remember the CHIPS Act? That was Biden. Semiconductors, export controls, that was Biden. Wasn't something Trump was focused on. He was focused on trade, on the trade deficit, on tariffs, on those issues, intellectual property theft, those issues. Not as focused on technology. Elon will be, and he's going to want people he wants to be appointed in relevant positions in the Trump administration. So if that happens, maybe it's true that US-China relations become more functional than they otherwise might've been. But this is an untested proposition, something very interesting to watch.
A couple other places that are really important, Russia-Ukraine. Did Trump, did Trump not have a conversation already with Putin? Kremlin's saying no, that means absolutely nothing. But clearly he is very interested in pushing Zelensky, who is on the back foot militarily right now, to end this war. And the likelihood of a near-term ceasefire has gone way up because of Trump. Orbán of course, already been saying that from Hungary. Robert Fico from Slovakia wasn't saying that before Trump was elected. Now he is. Are we going to see that from Giorgia Meloni in Italy, for example, who's ideologically disposed to Trump, but has been much more anti-Russia in her policies? Watch that very, very carefully. Other countries that aren't on the front lines.
So it's going to be a lot of pressure on the Ukrainians, an opportunity for Putin, if he wants it, though he's doing well militarily, so he's going to probably drive a harder bargain on even a short-term ceasefire than he might have three months ago, six months ago. And he knows Trump wants to get this done. And then we need to see what the Europeans do. Do they hang together under a relatively strong and aligned European Union leadership, or do we start to see a real split among a whole bunch of European individual government leaders that are a lot weaker? Super interesting.
And then of course, you have the Middle East. And on the Middle East policies are even stronger than Biden's pro-Israel policies. And you've seen a lot of support for going after Iran. Might the Israelis now do that? Oil prices are low. China's not demanding much energy. Hitting the Iranians nuclear and energy capabilities wouldn't bring oil as high as they would've been 6 months ago, 12 months ago. Depends on what the Iranians do in response, how disruptive they want to be. But right now they're reaching out to everyone. The Europeans, the Iranians are reaching out to the Saudis. They just did some low level military exercises with the Saudis. This is a country that is basically saying, "We don't want a big fight. We know that we're going to lose if we have one." Easy time for Trump to press in the Middle East. Last time he was president, first place he went was Saudi Arabia, then Israel. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he does that again. Though he probably flips it this time around in terms of the order.
Okay, so much to talk about, so much to watch. I hope you find this interesting. We'll be on top of it and we'll talk to you all real soon.
Today, around 3.3 billion people live in countries spending more on debt than on essential services like education and healthcare, and governments worldwide are struggling to pay these debts. Rebeca Grynspan, secretary-general of the UN Conference on Trade and Development, warns of looming trade wars and faltering financial systems designed to reduce global poverty and promote development. What will it take to get countries back on track? Grynspan shares insights on this, highlighting the roles of the UN General Assembly and the International Monetary Fund in a Global Stage interview with GZERO’s Tony Maciulison the sidelines of the 7th annual Paris Peace Forum.
Watch out for more coverage of the Paris Peace Forum from GZERO this week.
Stephen Miller waves from the stage during a Trump campaign rally in Detroit, Michigan, on October 18, 2024.
If his expanding slew of cabinet picks tells us anything, President-elect Donald Trump will, as expected, take an ultra-hardline approach to immigration, security matters, and relations with the United Nations.
He is reportedly set to appointStephen Miller as his deputy chief of staff. Miller, a former Trump speechwriter and close adviser, is a stickler on immigration who helped formulate Trump’s proposals for the mass deportation of up to one million undocumented immigrants per year, as well as a review of current citizenship and naturalization policies.
In that capacity, Miller will work closely with Thomas D. Homan, whom Trump has tapped as his somewhat vaguely defined “border czar.” According to Trump, Homan will oversee border security and “be in charge of all Deportation of Illegal Aliens.” Homan, a former ICE official, oversaw record deportations under the Obama administration and helped design Trump 1.0’s controversial “family separation policy.”
Trump has also nominated New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik as US ambassador to the United Nations. Stefanik, a staunch Israel supporter and harsh critic of the UN, has called for defunding UNRWA, the organization’s humanitarian relief agency for Palestinian refugees, over allegations that it is infiltrated by Hamas. Stefanik has accepted the post, and as ambassador, she will carry Trump’s UN-skeptic, “America First” agenda right into the heart of the organization.
Trump has reportedly tapped Florida Rep. Michael Waltz, a retired Special Forces officer and China hawk, as his national security adviser. Former New York Rep. Lee Zeldin, meanwhile, has been appointed to run the Environmental Protection Agency, where Trump says Zeldin will “ensure fair and swift deregulatory decisions that will be enacted in a way to unleash the power of American businesses.” Sen. Marco Rubio is expected to bring harsh stances on Latin America -- notably Venezuela and Cuba -- and China and Russia to the position of secretary of state, and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem is set to become Trump's secretary for the Department of Homeland Security, according to reports.
Trump has already appointed his White House chief of staff, Susie Wiles, and she told GOP donors yesterday that Trump plans to hit the ground running by reinstating several executive orders from his first term on Day 1 of taking office — though she did not specify which ones. Wiles also told the group that Trump plans to revolutionize the government in two years, rather than four, in recognition that he could face harsh midterm elections.
Taiwan's then-Vice President William Lai at a news conference in Taipei, in January 2023.
Less than a week after Trump’s US election victory, Taiwanese officials have publicly floated a plan to spend billions on US-made weapons and weapons systems, including F-35 fighter jets, retired US warships, an airborne radar defense system, and hundreds of Patriot missiles. The goal is to persuade China that an invasion of the island would come at an unacceptably high military, material, and political cost for Beijing.
Trump is widely expected to again turn up the heat in US relations with China, particularly on trade issues, right after his inauguration in January. Officials in the government of Taiwanese President William Lai hope that Trump will find arms sales to their country useful as a way of maximizing pressure on Beijing. And even if US-China relations eventually improve, Taiwan will have already upgraded its defense capabilities.