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Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Ukraine assassinated a top Russian general on a Moscow sidewalk. Is this a significant or dangerous escalation?
I think it's a significant escalation in the sense that the highest-ranked Russian official who has been killed by Ukraine in the war has been assassinated in Russia. And it's the kind of thing that, frankly, we've seen from Israel in terms of top officials, Lebanon and Hezbollah, Hamas in Gaza, in Iran. So I mean, this kind of asymmetric warfare, in addition to the fighting on the front lines, is something that we're increasingly getting used to everywhere. But of course, not so much from the weaker power, in this case, Ukraine.
And what we're seeing is an escalation on both sides. More Russian missile attacks, larger numbers, more damaging, more efforts to take territory, more significant than early in the war by the Russians in Ukraine. And more Ukrainian efforts to do damage to Russia before negotiations start to get them both in a better position. Is it more dangerous? A little bit it is. But it also shows that negotiations are coming soon.
With the recent collapse of both France and Germany's governments what kind of turmoil does it create for the EU bloc?
It just means a less strong European Union because the replacements for these governments are not all aligned in the same direction. In France, it's going to be internal fighting between foreign policy run by Macron and domestic policy run by a series of prime ministers, and very challenging to get a strong coordinated support for the EU. In Germany, a very weak Scholz coalition is going to be replaced by probably reasonably weak center-right coalition.
We see a level of populism, nationalism getting stronger in outcomes for European elections across the board. And some of that is a very challenging economic environment that is not rebounding the way the United States is. Some of that is very strong opposition to all of the refugees. Migrants a bigger problem in Europe than it is in the United States. And part of it is upset that they don't have the sovereignty to respond because of the European Union, and that's an easy thing to make into a bogeyman. So for all of those reasons, I think the EU is going to get a little weaker while it's been getting stronger over the last 10 years.
Why does Trump say Turkey "holds the key" to Syria's future?
Well, one, because the Americans under Trump are likely to remove the small number of troops that the United States has had operating in the north. And that means that Turkey is the country that is most capable and also most aligned with the United States to respond, to take over that position to lead the fight against ISIS.
Also, if you're Turkey to lead the fight to contain the Kurds, which is not so aligned with what the Americans want. They'll also be key to reconstruction. The money will come largely from the EU, but the reconstruction on the ground will largely be done by the Turks. So for both of those reasons, if there's any international player that is going to be critical to what happens in Syria, it's not going to be the United States. It's not going to be the Russians that have been forced out. It's not going to be Iranians that aren't playing the state's different role anymore. It's going to be America's NATO ally, Turkey.
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why did you originally think Assad would be able to resist being overthrown?
I am absolutely surprised at the sudden regime change after 50 years of the Assads being in charge. A couple of reasons for it. First is because despite HTS wanting to engage in strikes, the Turkish government, which has been supporting them militarily, had been saying, "No, no, no." And even when they supported them, it was a flashing yellow light. It was take local territory, let the Syrians have more control over their border region. It was not going after Assad. Also, because the Russians and the Iranians, though they were significantly stretched, were providing military support in the early days. So that's the reason I thought that they were likely to be able to resist, but the fact is that they imploded very, very quickly.
What led you to believe Yoon's martial law declaration would fail in South Korea?
Well, here felt a lot like January 6th in the United States, January 8th in Brazil. You had a besieged individual leader, in this case not about an election, but facing 20% approval rates and massive corruption scandals and all sorts of impeachments against members of his cabinet, just getting desperate and deciding to pull the trigger on emergency martial law illegally and without talking even to leadership of his own party. So it seemed pretty clear that there wasn't going to be support. The South Korean people, the judiciary, the parliament, and rank and file, and the military were clearly not going to be supportive. So I mean, I expected that to last very, very briefly, and it fell apart very quickly indeed. He should be out of power in short order. And I expect he's going to resign, by the way, as opposed to being impeached, but it could go either way.
What's another major geopolitical assessment you've made that played out differently than expected, and what does it reveal about the complexities of global politics?
One of the biggest ones is probably the role of technology in geopolitics. Back in the '90s, if you think about the coloured revolutions in the former Soviet republics, you think about the Arab Spring after that, technology was really the communications revolution. It was decentralizing. It gave individuals access to more information and power. It undermined authoritarian regimes, and it promoted democracy. And today, just 20 years, 25 years later, technology has completely changed geopolitically. It's much more top-down. It's much more centralizing. It's about the data revolution, the surveillance revolution. It increasingly empowers authoritarian states that know how to use it, and it undermines democracies. And that is maybe one of the biggest geopolitical changes that's happened in my political lifetime, certainly the biggest since the Soviet Union imploded back in 1989 to '91. And it just goes to show that no matter what you think about the world, if you're not constantly updating your views, you're going to be wrong at some point.
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Ukraine has launched US-made long-range missiles into Russia for the first time. Will this change the course of the war?
I don't think so. First of all, the reason the Americans were dragging their feet for so long is because they didn't believe it would have any strategic impact in the war to give that permissioning to the Ukrainians and they were worried that it might lead to Russian escalation. That escalation is less likely given that Trump has been elected and he's going to be in power in just a couple of months, so the Russians basically have to deal with it, and they'll probably end up hitting more Ukrainian sites in the next couple of months. But I don't think it's really going to help the Ukrainians. I don't think it's going to hurt the Russians that much. What I do think is that the Russians are more likely to give better weapons, more capable weapons, to the Houthis, for example. So, if the Americans are going to arm proxies better, then the Russians will arm proxies better, and that could lead to bigger problems in the Gulf.
How likely will Trump be able to carry out mass deportations when he's in office?
I think he will be capable. He certainly was elected in part on that intention, on that promise. This is something that Biden really did not pay attention to until way too late and he lost a lot of votes in blue cities where people felt like there were just far too many illegal immigrants and the costs were great, and the security concerns were real. And so, the fact that he says he's going to use the military, that's potentially a Supreme Court question, but especially when you talk about people that have committed crimes in the United States, why they should still be in the US is a very serious question. And I wouldn't be surprised at all if 300,000, 500,000 deported in the first year. In other words, a hell of a lot higher than you've seen under Biden. There will be an inflation cost there, but it's one that I don't think Trump is going to take a big hit for.
Will there be political fallout from Hong Kong's decision to jail pro-democracy activists?
Not really, because China has changed the national security law. They've completely integrated Hong Kong into the Chinese political system and the pro-democracy activists don't have anyone that's willing to support them, not the UK, not the United States. I mean, they're human rights organizations, and you'll see members of Congress on the Democrat and Republican side that'll complain about it, but they won't do anything. So on balance, I don't think it matters, and that means, or I should say, it doesn't matter for China, which means very little blowback.
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Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
North Korea ratified a major defense treaty with Russia. What do both sides hope to gain?
Well, the North Koreans really want mutual defense. They are helping the Russians out in their time of need, sending a whole bunch of troops, things that the North Koreans have in surplus and don't really value and the Russians can really use right now. And they would love to see Russian troops in North Korea. They'd love to see that appear as mutual defense and give the North Koreans a lot more leverage so they are not forced to be supplicants in Beijing, and they can also be more assertive versus South Korea, Japan, and others. This is a major escalation in this war and a big problem geopolitically.
The Russians, of course, are just looking for more troops, more ammunition, more ability to fight, and they are in a much, much stronger position to get terms that they want from the United States and from the Ukrainians. Especially now that the US has elected somebody that says he really, really wants to end the war. Putin will be like, "Okay, but here are the things that I need if you want me to end the war." Trump's incented to give him a lot more of those than almost anybody in NATO right now.
Japan's PM survived a rare parliamentary vote. How will he tackle the country's sluggish economy?
Well, he is saying that he's going to do a lot more stimulus, and so basically blow out the budget. Exactly, not where he has been historically. Japan's economy is pretty flat. Interest rates are close to zero, though they've been pushing them up a bit, historically surprising, recently. It's not like companies are all itching to get into Japan. Their demography is falling apart, and most people are pushing their production elsewhere, so including Japanese companies. So it's a real challenge, and Ishiba is going to be there maybe for a year. This is a very weak LDP coalition government.
What do I expect to come from COP29, the new climate summit happening in Baku?
Well, the Americans are attending with their knees cut off because Trump is going to be president in a couple months and he will pull the Americans out of the Paris Climate Accord once again. The trajectory on post-carbon investment and the prices coming down at scale for the Americans and for everyone in the world is already way too well-developed to pull back, and that's a good thing. But the US is going to be focused more on additional permitting and for oil and gas and production increases. Even beyond the record levels that they are right now under the Biden administration. They'll go further.
And so it's really, the Americans are going to be pretty marginalized at this summit, and the Chinese are driving the bus. They're producing a lot more coal, of course, but at the same time, they're also producing a hell of a lot more post-carbon renewables at global levels. In other words, China's doing at global scale what Texas is doing in the United States. And that is making them much more important as decision-makers.
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With reports of North Korean troops in Kursk, what is the likelihood of NATO directly intervening in the Ukraine-Russia war?
I do think that North Korean troops fighting in the Russia-Ukraine war is a major escalation, will lead to tougher sanctions, will lead to greater likelihood the Americans decide to allow for Western missiles to be used to target targets inside Russia. But the ultimatum that's been given is that if Russia deploys North Korean troops inside Ukraine itself, then NATO will respond with combat troops in Ukraine. That is a major escalation in this war. It is meant for the Russians to take it very seriously. I hope that Putin accordingly decides to keep those North Korean troops in Russia itself. And I know that the Chinese also are very concerned about where this is going. So, we'll watch this very closely.
Moldova's pro-Western President secured a second term after narrow runoff win. Does her victory reflect Western strength against Putin?
I'm not so sure. I mean, first of all, of course, lots of efforts by the Russians themselves to interfere monetarily, disinformation in this election, the way they did successfully in Georgia. In the case of Moldova, you have an awful lot of Moldovans voting that were outside Moldova legally, but that's what turned this race. It wasn't the people on the ground. And it was, as mentioned in the question, very tight indeed. This helps them stay on track with the European Union membership. But there's a very large Russian population in breakaway Transnistria with Russian troops on the ground. And I suspect that Putin and the Kremlin has no interest in giving up on this. So, it's going to keep going in the coming years.
How is the political rift between Bolivia's government and the former President Evo Morales affecting the country's stability and economy?
Well, Bolivia, extremely mountainous, very easy to shut down the economy. Just roadblocks in some of the mountain roads that are hard to move along and that means that you can't get goods through and massive inflation. And that's what's happening right now. And he, though he's from the same party as the president, believes that he's being mistreated. They're going after him for all style of corruption. Does appear to be legitimate charges, but he has leverage with a lot of Bolivians that are turning out in his favor. So I suspect if they don't come to some kind of compromise, this is going to hurt the economy there quite a bit. Not the only place we have instability in the world. And then we'll see what happens in the US later today. Be good and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With the US election a week away, why do Israelis prefer a Trump presidency?
Well, they see that he's prioritized Israel. His first presidency, he was the guy that went to Israel. This was his first trip right after going to the Gulf. That never happens with US presidents. He recognized the Golan Heights as being Israeli territory, the occupied territory they have. Had no problems with taking more territory in the West Bank. Moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem. I mean, this has just been someone who has been significantly and consistently pro-Israel, and a lot of his money comes from some of the biggest Israeli-sponsored funds and funders in the United States. I suspect that that is the reason. Keep in mind, lots of US allies around the world. Most of them generally don't support Trump. They support Harris because "America First" is not considered exactly a happy marketing slogan if you don't happen to be American. But Israel, like Hungary, like El Salvador, like Argentina, a few others, the exceptions of that.
How might the results of the Georgia elections and subsequent protests affect political stability and EU membership prospects?
Well, the Georgia Dream Party that has won have said that they still want to join the European Union. But given the fact that they have moved their legal system in a more illiberal direction, they make it much harder for Georgia to join the EU. Of course, that process has been not moved forward while it did for Ukraine and for Moldova over the last year. Also, the fact that it looks like Georgia Dream has done everything they can to steal the elections through election monitors that we've seen in rural areas across the country. Again, not a way to move forward with the European Union. It looks a lot less likely and political instability in Georgia is something we're going to see a lot more of going forward.
To what extent will Puerto Rico and Latino voters sway the election in Kamala Harris's favor?
Hard to say. But the fact that there was a really offensive slur against Puerto Ricans on stage in advance of Trump's big rally at Madison Square Garden this weekend, one that even the Trump campaign felt the need to distance the president from, former president, which they almost never do. This is a guy that doubles down on almost everything is because there are a lot of Puerto Ricans that vote. That's particularly true in swing states, particularly true in Pennsylvania, several hundred thousand. Certainly, that's why Kamala Harris is immediately running ads and putting money behind it on the other side. Trump has not made many mistakes in the last couple of weeks that look like they're vote losers in swing states, and this is one in my view. Whoever this comic is, clearly the jokes weren't adequately vetted. But will it make a difference? Well, we'll see you on Tuesday. Right? This is a razor's edge election and it's going to be super close in my view. That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
BRICS Summit: A "new world order" or already a relic of the past?
Neither. It's in Kazan in Russia. So, I mean, the big issue is that the fact that Putin is hosting it hasn't stopped people from showing up, and that says a lot about the state of the non-West. If you're not in the G7, you're still finding ways to work with the Russians, and that's not going to change anytime soon. But it is not an alternative to the G7. It's a large grouping, and they have different political, different economic systems. They want to work with everybody. So we're not heading towards a new Cold War, at least not in terms of the big global architecture.
Is Sinwar's death the beginning of the end of the war in Gaza?
I think it is in terms of Israel's military fighting, because they've killed the leadership, they've blown up the tunnels, they've found the arms caches. I mean, there's not much else for them to do. But I mean, the war from the Palestinian perspective is just beginning. They are utterly devastated. They have no ability to have a future for themselves or their kids, and they are going to be fighting for generations. So right now, it doesn't matter much to Israel because they're massively asymmetrically powerful from a military perspective, but long-term this is not something that we're going to be able to forget about.
Yankees versus Shohei Ohtani, I mean Dodgers. Who's winning?
Well, I mean, that is funny of course, because here in Japan everyone has Ohtani fever. You cannot avoid it everywhere you walk. It is pretty exciting. They are the two teams that I wanted to see in the World Series, and I think it's going to be a fascinating week and a half or whatever it is. And I wish... I mean, I tend to root for the Red Sox, which means not rooting for the Yankees. That means I kind of want the Dodgers to win. But at the end of the day, I love sports because a minute after the game is over, I am no longer super excited. And I wish that could be the way that politics work.
Anyway, be good and I'll talk to you all real soon.