A dangerous escalation in Syria

An airstrike in northwestern Syria yesterday killed at least 33 Turkish troops. It is unclear whether the strike was carried out by Syrian forces or by the Russian jets that support them. The incident risks a major escalation in one of the world's most intractable conflicts and has already created the prospect of a new refugee crisis for Europe.

Who's fighting who again? As a reminder, Moscow backs Syrian government forces, which are trying to retake rebel-held Idlib province, the last bit of strategic territory that remains beyond Damascus' control. Turkey, in turn, backs some of those rebel groups, and has also sent its own troops across the border to deter the Syrian advance.

Ankara's main concern is that the devastating humanitarian impact of the Syrian campaign will push even more Syrian refugees into Turkey. The country is already hosting three million refugees, and popular opinion is turning against them.

How will Turkey respond? Shortly after the killing of the Turkish troops was reported, a Turkish official told Reuters that the government would begin allowing refugees to make their way to the EU again. Since 2016, Turkey has hosted refugees in exchange for EU aid in the form of billions of euros. Turkey has repeatedly threatened to "open the gates" unless the EU does more to back Ankara's aims in Syria. If the gates are indeed open, Europe could be facing a major new refugee crisis – precisely as the coronavirus is again testing the bloc's commitment to open borders among its members.

As for the airstrike itself, Turkey's strongman president will have to show some fist after so many of his men were killed. If Ankara holds Syria responsible, we could see a much more significant Turkish incursion into Syria. Turkey has already launched a massive retaliatory strike against Syrian positions. If Turkey implicates Russia, then Ankara – and its NATO allies – would have to contemplate the prospect of retaliating against a nuclear power. Russia has officially denied any responsibility for the strike, but is already sending more warships to Syria in a show of force.

One clarifying note: NATO doesn't have to do anything about this. The collective defense article of the NATO treaty applies only to attacks on a member country's soil. Northwest Syria is not Turkish territory.

Bottom line: One of the world's worst conflicts, and the refugee flows it has generated, are on the brink of a major escalation that could have a big impact on regional players and Europe.

More from GZERO Media

Listen: In seven short weeks, the Trump administration has completely reshaped US foreign policy and upended trade alliances. Will China benefit from US retrenchment and increasing global uncertainty, or will its struggling economy hold it back? On the GZERO World Podcast, Bill Bishop, a China analyst and author of the Sinocism newsletter, joins Ian Bremmer for a wide-ranging conversation about China—its domestic priorities, global administration, and whether America’s retreat from global commitments is opening new doors for Beijing.

German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz speaks to the media after he reached an agreement with the Greens on a massive increase in state borrowing just days ahead of a parliamentary vote next week, in Berlin, Germany, on March 14, 2025.
REUTERS/Axel Schmidt

Germany’s election-winning center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union, led by Friedrich Merz, and the Social Democrats have reached a preliminary agreement with the Green Party on a deal to exclude defense spending from the country’s constitutional debt break and establish a dedicated $545 billion fund for infrastructure investments.

A Russian army soldier walks along a ruined street of Malaya Loknya settlement, which was recently retaken by Russia's armed forces in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Kursk region, on March 13, 2025.

Russian Defence Ministry/Handout via REUTERS

The Russian leader has conditions of his own for any ceasefire with Ukraine, and he also wants a meeting with Donald Trump.

Mahmoud Khalil speaks to members of the media about the Revolt for Rafah encampment at Columbia University on June 1, 2024.

REUTERS/Jeenah Moon

The court battle over whether the US can deport Mahmoud Khalil, the 30-year-old Palestinian-Algerian activist detained in New York last Saturday, began this week in Manhattan. Khalil, an outspoken activist for Palestinian rights at Columbia University, was arrested Saturday at his apartment in a university-owned building at Columbia University by Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers, and he is now being held in an ICE detention center in Louisiana.

The Israeli Air Force launched an airstrike on Thursday, targeting a building in the Mashrou Dummar area of Damascus.
(Photo by Rami Alsayed/NurPhoto)

An Israeli airstrike destroyed a residential building on the outskirts of Damascus on Thursday in the latest Israeli incursion into post-Assad Syria.

Lars Klingbeil (l), Chairman of the SPD parliamentary group, and Friedrich Merz, CDU Chairman and Chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, talk at the end of the 213th plenary session of the 20th legislative period in the German Bundestag.

Germany’s government is in a state of uncertainty as the outgoing government races to push through a huge, and highly controversial, new spending package before its term ends early this spring.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, a Republican, speaks as the U.S. vice president visits East Palestine, Ohio, U.S., February 3, 2025.
Rebecca Droke/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

On Wednesday, Environmental Protection Agency chief Lee Zeldin redefined the agency’s mission, stating that its focus is to “lower the cost of buying a car, heating a home, and running a business.”