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North Macedonia's EU membership bid complicated by new nationalist government
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Arizona, US.
What's the outcome and the likely result of the North Macedonia parliamentary election?
A new government, more nationalist, more rightists coming in. And the problem with that is that North Macedonia has made a number of concessions in order to make its EU path possible. First concessions through Greece in terms of the names and the number of concessions through France and a number of concessions through Bulgaria on minority and related issues. And the new government has got to say no to a lot of these things. And that further complicates the EU process, which is highly regrettable because the country in substance really deserves to move forward on that process.
What was the result of Xi Jinping's much celebrated tour of Europe?
Well, the tour was really restricted to France, where he had the usual talks with President Macron and I think Macron was an alliance, was an alliance had the right words concerning what China is doing in terms of supporting Ukraine, which is supporting Russia in its war against Ukraine, which is creating problems in the relationship to Europe, whether it's sorted out any of the economic issues remains to be seen. And then, of course, he went on to Serbia and to Hungary, which are much more China-friendly countries and much publicity and new agreements of different sorts. But if you to talk about the overall relationship between China and Europe, the European Union, I don't think much was changed by this particular trip.
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What's next after MTG fails in bid to oust House Speaker Mike Johnson
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
This is what we're watching in US Politics this week: More turmoil in the House.
Georgia member Marjorie Taylor Greene, who's made quite a name for herself as an outspoken opponent of Republican leadership and a prolific fundraiser online, this week triggered another motion to vacate the speaker. The second this year. Only this time it was against Mike Johnson, the speaker who replaced Kevin McCarthy after he was removed during a motion to vacate earlier in the year.
The big change this time was that Democrats rallied to Johnson's side, defending him against the Republicans that tried to take him out and resoundingly defeating the measure, which really takes a lot of the wind out of the sails of future rebellions against the Republican speaker at least for the rest of 2024. Democrats and moderate Republicans are both tired of this level of chaos and want to defang the Republicans, who want to make life harder for the leader of the House of Representatives. That doesn't mean they're all allies now however. Mike Johnson is going to spend the rest of the year pushing very partisan measures across the floor of the House of Representatives in order to draw a contrast between Republicans and Democrats that voters understand when they go to cast a ballot in November. There will be a very small number of must pass legislation coming up.
Right now, Congress is working on reauthorization of the FAA. Later in the year, they're going to have to once again pass a budget bill to keep the government funded. Those will probably be very bipartisan measures. And one of the big ironies of the extreme polarization that's happening in the House, including within the Republican faction, is that the House is now effectively functioning more like the bipartisan Senate, which requires a supermajority of 60 senators, and which is always a bipartisan coalition in order to get almost anything done.
That's now the situation that the House finds itself in. The House is typically the significantly more partisan body. But because of the Republican dissenters against Johnson, they've turned the House into a much more bipartisan place, which really won't get much done this year. So one lesson from Marjorie Taylor Greene this week is that if she comes to the king, she better not miss, she came for the king and she missed. And now she's going to find herself on the outs with the Republicans, probably for the rest of the year.
Thanks for watching. Tune in next week.
With a Rafah invasion, is the Israel-Hamas cease-fire dead?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With Israel beginning its invasion of Rafah, is the recent Hamas agreed to cease-fire dead?
No. Though, of course, it was never really alive. Wasn't alive because the Israelis didn't agree to the terms that the Palestinians and Hamas did. But they are still negotiating and Israel's initial foray across the border to take over the crossing in Gaza is not, considered a redline, by the Americans, though it is disrupting humanitarian aid, and it's certainly not a full fledged invasion. So, I mean, again, escalation, lots of warnings, expectation that invasion is going to ensue quickly. But still a possibility that you get a short term cease-fire, a short term cease-fire. We'll see.
Will widespread flooding in Brazil lead to a larger crisis in the region?
Not in the near term. It is going to put some fiscal pressure on Brazil. You know, about 100 looks like dead and missing, and horrible floods, very costly. A result of an El Nino this year which we're seeing in a lot of places. And Brazil is going to have to continue to spend on this. And a lot of countries are and those costs, of course, a lot easier for the developed countries to manage than developing. And loss and damages from natural disasters is not a well funded effort by the wealthy on the planet at this point.
Will a Russian invasion of Ukraine endure as long as Putin, who begins his fifth term as president, remains in office?
While it's been going on since 2014. And so we're in our second decade of Russian invasion of Ukraine. I don't think the fighting has to continue as long as Putin is in office. I am hopeful that at some point, a negotiation can end this conflict. But it's not going to lead to peace between Russia and Ukraine as long as Putin is in office. It's not going to lead to a reestablishment of diplomatic ties between Russia and NATO countries as long as Putin is in office. And, it also isn't going to lead, to the Ukrainians taking all their land back as long as Putin is in office. So those are the problems. And, that's going to be with us for a while.
Tbilisi clashes: Georgia government pushes "Russian" bill risking EU candidacy
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Arizona, US.
With the huge protests that we see in the streets of Tbilisi, is that a sign of the Georgian government moving closer to Russia?
Well, it is certainly a sign of the Georgian government being more authoritarian and distinctly more anti-Western. And that is, of course, endangering the ambitions of Georgia to move closer to the European Union, eventually membership. We'll see what happens. But Georgia was given this status of candidate country to the European Union. I think what we see now is going to have the consequences that there's not going to be any movement forward on that until we see Georgia moving into more Western, Democratic, and liberal direction.
Which are the implications of the resignation of the first minister of Scotland?
I think what we see there, in that particular crisis in Edinburgh, is part of the decline of the Scottish Nationalist Party. It was the dominant force in Scottish politics for quite some time. It, of course, drove the issue of Scottish independence that was defeated, rather narrowly, though, in a referendum some years ago. But independence isn't the only issue, and they've been stumbling on the one issue and all the others since then. I think what will happen is the return of the Labour Party as the dominant political force in Scotland. And for the time being, the question of independence on a distinct back-burner.
Campus protests spill over into US political sphere
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
This is what we are watching in US Politics this week: It's still the campus protests for the second week in a row.
This has been a pretty dominant story in US Politics, despite everything going on in the world. Antony Blinken trying to get peace in the Middle East. Donald Trump on trial. These campus protests have dominated headlines and are starting to spill over into the political sphere.
You've seen a number of Republican governors like in Georgia over the weekend, gleefully moving the police in, in order to crack down on a protest at Emory University. The University of North Carolina system has come out strongly against campus protests, and conservatives are rallying to support a bunch of frat boys that decided to defend the American flag against some protesters who wanted to put up a different flag.
Ben Sasse, former senator from Nebraska, is now the president of the University of Florida system, getting kudos online for his strong response. And you're getting protests that are turning increasingly violent at UCLA, at Columbia where a bunch of students occupied administrative building, leading Mayor Eric Adams to send in the police. President Biden this week gave an address to the nation on the student protests, asking for everybody to please calm down, clearly trying to align themselves with who are basically the normies of American politics who don't like this kind of campus protests and violence.
And Donald Trump getting in the game, trying to take advantage of the protests by claiming these are all left wing agitators who are aligned with the Democratic Party. This theme is going to continue throughout the campaign if the protests are sustained, which is, of course, a big question marks with campuses going home for their summer vacation in the next few weeks. So likely the story dies down but will come back to life later in the summer with any protests planned around the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
And of course, any protests that are launched on campuses when they come back in the fall, much closer to the election date. One thing this could be a preview of is organized activism against Donald Trump. Should he win the White House and immediately take actions to crack down on immigration in the United States, or any other hot bit social issue. You now have an organized protest movement that could carry itself into 2025, in the event of a Trump win.
Who cares if the Supreme Court justices like each other?
Yale legal scholar and New York Times Magazine staff writer Emily Bazelon wants to have faith in the Supreme Court. "I want to have a good faith belief in the justices' approach to these cases” she tells Ian Bremmer in a new episode of GZERO World. But in a wide-ranging conversation in which Bazelon and Bremmer preview the major cases facing the Supreme Court this spring, Bazelon confesses that the past few years have tested her faith.
“After a certain number of cases come out particular ways, you start to feel like cynicism is realism about the Court."
And Bazelon is not alone. Public faith in the Supreme Court is at record lows, thanks to its rightward tilt and ethical questions surrounding the conduct of Justice Clarence Thomas. And that’s a problem, Bazelon says, not just for America but for the justices themselves. “They all have an incentive to protect the institution, the liberals as well as the conservatives. They don't want to see Americans lose total faith in the Court. That's not good for them and their job security and their collective legacy.”
But do the justices themselves get along? Bazelon couldn’t care less. “I'm personally mystified why they think we should care about that. I don't care whether they can be nice to each other when they're having lunch, whether they're collegial. I care about whether American law is going in a direction that makes sense to most Americans.” But at a time when the country itself could not be more divided, could collegiality in the highest court of the land be just the thing that Americans cling to?
Watch the full interview with Emily Bazelon on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer on US public television beginning this Friday, May 3. Check local listings.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
Episodes
Israel intent on Rafah invasion despite global backlash
How will the international community respond to an Israeli invasion of Rafah? How would a Trump presidency be different from his first term? Are growing US campus protests a sign of a chaotic election in November? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Europe needs to strengthen its defenses, says President Macron
Does President Macron in France, thinks that Europe can't rely on the United States for its defense no longer? Does the resurgence of the radical right in any way impair the celebration in Portugal that is 50 years since the coup, the revolution that overturned the dictatorship? Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm.
How campus protests could influence the US presidential election
Campus protests are a major story this week over the Israeli operation in Gaza and the Biden administration's support for it. These are leading to accusations of anti-Semitism on college campuses, and things like canceling college graduation ceremonies at several schools. Will this be an issue of the November elections?
Columbia & Yale protests: What campus protesters want
Why hasn't the United Nations insisted on military observers in Gaza? What specific demands are being voiced by campus protesters at institutions such as Columbia and Yale? How will US aid package approval shake the dynamic of the Russia-Ukraine war? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
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