There are less than two months before the US presidential election. Do you, dear US voter, know whom you are going to vote for? Chances are the answer is “yes.”
True undecideds are a rare species, especially this late in the cycle.
Back in the final days before the 2020 election, our satire series “Puppet Regime” went to find the last three of them in America: They were Lowly Worm, who had been living under a rock; Rip Van Winkle, who had been asleep for 20 years; and Pinocchio, whose nose grew every time he told a pollster he still wasn’t sure whom he’d vote for.
The point? In a deeply polarized country choosing between two starkly different candidates — one of whom has been a well-known quantity for almost a decade — there aren’t many people out there whose minds aren’t already made up.
The data backs this up. A recent poll in Pennsylvania, a major swing state, showed that just 3% of those registered “don’t know who they will vote for.” Meanwhile, 85% already had their choice set, and an additional 12% said they had a preference but could still potentially be swayed.
But even small numbers matter, of course. If recent elections are any guide, the margin of victory in the Keystone State will be about 1%. The same will likely be true of other swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona.
So, if you are one of the true holdouts who is still perplexed about whom to vote for — or whether to vote at all — we are here to help. We put together a list of the best reasons an imaginary moderate might vote for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
Here goes.
If you vote for Kamala Harris, it’s because:
Protecting access to abortion is a major issue for you. Since the Trump-sculpted SCOTUS overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, it’s been a mixed bag for abortion rights. Some states have rejected the most restrictive laws — or look set to in upcoming referendums — while others have imposed draconian ones. Conservative activists have called for national-level prohibitions, either by Congress or executive action. Trump has given no indication he would stand in the way of either. Harris, on the other hand, has promised to sign national abortion protection into law — though that would require it to pass Congress first.
You think the richest Americans should pay more taxes. To be fair,you aren’t quite sure what Harris intends to do about grocery prices or housing – you like that she’s mentioned both, but her proposals sound a little heavy-handed – but at a basic level, you think inequality is a problem, and that the rich should pay a bigger share than they do today. You also like what she’s said about expanding child tax credits and giving a boost to small businesses. You are going on vibes here, but you buy her concern about small businesses and the middle class.
You think a certain kind of character matters for the presidency. Trump is chaotic. He lies a lot. He is a convicted felon. He has disputed a fair election and at least tacitly encouraged a riot protesting the transfer of power. Even if you don’t object to some of his ideas on the economy or immigration, you think at a minimum that it would diminish the presidency, and the country, to honor a person like this (again) with the most powerful job in the world. At a maximum, you think his impulses, coupled with a recently expanded interpretation of presidential immunity, would imperil America’s democratic institutions.
You think a US-led world order is important. You are well-informed enough to understand that the US supports both democracies and dictatorships around the world, but you also think that alliances with fellow democracies like NATO matter and that Washington should push back against efforts by the world’s most powerful non-democracies to expand their power and territory.
On the other hand, if you vote for Donald Trump, it will be because:
You miss the pre-pandemic economy. Poll after poll shows that voters think Trump will be better for the economy, likely because they have fond memories of the pre-pandemic good old days. In 2019, median household income saw the biggest spike in more than four decades — hitting arecord high of $68,700. The poverty rate fell to 10.5%, the lowest since records started six decades earlier, and prices for food and gas were much lower. To bring back the party, Trump has promised to cut regulation and lower the corporate tax rate to 20%. He’d also extend his 2017 tax cuts, which would give everyonea tax break, even if the largest would go to the wealthiest Americans.
You think the US should prioritize domestic industry and energy. Trump says the welfare of US industries and workers is more important than global economic integration. He renegotiated NAFTA (now USMCA) to appeal to those who believe past deals hurt American workers, and his willingness to impose tariffs on China resonates with voters concerned about Beijing’s economic rise and unfair trade practices.
Trump has proposed a 10% global tariff and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, which could raise up to $3.8 trillion over a decade, even if raising the price of goods would also constitute a de facto tax on households. He also wants to unleash more American energy production and thinks that overemphasis on the green energy transition hurts US industries and hampers growth.
You think the US should keep its nose out of other countries’ wars. Trumpis overtly skeptical of foreign intervention, which aligns with voters who, after two decades of fighting in Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq, are fed up with wars that seem to go on indefinitely.
He believes the West has exaggerated the threat posed by Vladimir Putin and opposes sending more US military aid to Ukraine. China, he believes, is more dangerous than Russia because Beijing threatens to outpace the United States as the world’s dominant economic power.
You think the border is a big problem. As he did in 2016, Trump has put illegal immigration at the center of his campaign. The former president says he would militarize the border and conduct mass deportations of the undocumented. While his rhetoric sometimes veers into xenophobia or conspiracy, his emphasis on the gravity of the issue is in line with the broader feeling in the country. Gallup p0lls show that the majority of Americans view the situation at the US border to be a crisis and favor stricter asylum policies and more border control agents. Many of these voters blame Harris for the current situation at the border, since immigration was part of her portfolio as vice president.
You think he might not be a good person, but he tells it like it is. Democrats can make a mountain of moralistic condemnations of Trump — that he’s been indicted on criminal charges and incited an insurrection – but many voters don’t care about the political drama. They just want a president who speaks to their lived reality. Trump’s message of “America in decline” resonates with many voters living in communities where industries and opportunities have fled, where crime and costs-of-living crises have taken their place, and where politically correct pieties seem to take precedence over solutions to their problems.
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And the case for not worrying too much regardless of who wins? You probably think that whatever the excesses of Trump or Harris might be, a narrowly divided Congress and strong US institutions will restrain their worst impulses and ideas. There will be, you are confident, no “fascism” or “socialism” in America under either Harris or Trump. This raises a new question: Will you, unconcerned, fair-minded voter, bother casting a vote at all?
Well, who’s it going to be? Tell us what you think is the best case for and against each candidate here. If you include your name and where you’re writing from, we may include your response in an upcoming edition of the GZERO Daily, our flagship newsletter.