A look back at “Top Risks 2022”

GZERO Media

Every January, Eurasia Group, our parent company, produces a report with its forecast for the Top 10 Risks for the world in the year ahead. Its authors are EG President Ian Bremmer and EG Chairman Cliff Kupchan.

Next Tuesday morning, the 2023 report will drop, and we’ll let you know what’s in it. But today, we’ll look back at EG’s predictions for 2022. What did Bremmer and Kupchan nail, and where were they wrong?

Disclaimer: Your Signal author has contributed to these Top Risks reports for the past 18 years.

A year ago, these were EG’s Top 10 risks…

1. No Zero COVID: China’s zero-COVID policy will disrupt China and the global economy.

2. Technopolar world: Information technologies that govern the way we live, interact, vote, work, and do business will disrupt our lives, and big tech companies will do little to help.

3. US midterms: Results of congressional and state elections will set the stage for a potential constitutional crisis in 2024.

4. China at home: The pandemic and a series of longer-term problems will weigh heavily on China’s economy.

5. Russia: Diplomacy will probably prevent a full invasion of Ukraine, but Russia’s relations with the West will get much worse.

6. Iran: Tensions between Iran and the West will intensify.

7. Two steps greener, one step back: COVID recovery will slow the transition to greener energy.

8. Empty lands: A lack of global leadership will allow chronic conflicts to worsen and pose new threats in Afghanistan, Yemen, Venezuela, and other exporters of instability.

9. Corporates losing the culture war: Cancel culture and the growing power of social media as a weapon for activism will force large companies to spend more time and money navigating political minefields.

10. Turkey: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will drag Turkey’s economy and international standing to new lows.

There were also three “red herrings,” risks that EG considered overrated: The US and China will not descend into Cold War 2.0; a presidential election will not threaten Brazil’s democracy; and there will be no migration crisis in Europe.

Here’s the full 2022 report.

So, what did Eurasia Group get right? Bremmer, Kupchan, and EG’s China team were warning that China’s lockdown and testing intensive zero-COVID policy would last longer than many expected, would inflict considerable pain on China’s economy, and would stoke social unrest.

They also saw that China’s problems in 2022 would extend well beyond COVID, even as leader Xi Jinping consolidated more power.

They were right that Brazil’s election might generate controversy and even violence, but that a peaceful transfer of power would follow.

And they were correct that US-China hostilities would remain better contained than some feared, though one of the primary reasons for that leads us directly into the report’s biggest shortcomings.

What did EG get wrong? Bremmer and Kupchan did not believe Russia would launch a full-on invasion of Ukraine. (Apparently, many of Vladimir Putin’s generals shared that mistaken view.) The report acknowledged that a much more limited military incursion was possible, but they did not foresee how far Putin would go – or that Russia’s military failures in Ukraine would make China’s government more cautious in relations with the US and Europe.

Bremmer and Kupchan were also too pessimistic about the willingness of American voters to reject the candidacies of 2020 election deniers at the state level, though many did win seats in the House of Representatives. The risk of a major constitutional confrontation in 2024 is now much lower than some feared a year ago.

Finally, though there was no new flow of refugees from the Middle East into Europe, missing the full-on Russian invasion meant missing the flow of millions of Ukrainians into Poland and other neighboring countries.

Watch this space. On Tuesday morning, we’ll give you a look at Bremmer and Kupchan’s predictions for 2023, and we hope you’ll tell us what you think of them.

More from GZERO Media

France's President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a press conference following a summit for the "coalition of the willing" at the Elysee Palace in Paris on March 27, 2025.

LUDOVIC MARIN/Pool via REUTERS

At the third summit of the so-called “coalition of the willing” for Ukraine on Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron proposed a multinational “reassurance force” to deter Russian aggression once a ceasefire is in place – and to engage if attacked.

A group demonstrators chant slogans together as they hold posters during the protest. The ongoing protests were sparked by the arrest of Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
Sopa Images via Reuters

Last week’s arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu sparked the largest anti-government rallies in a decade and resulted in widespread arrests throughout Turkey. Nearly 1,900 people have been detained since the protests erupted eight days ago.

National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), the then-nominee for US ambassador to the UN, during a Cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, DC, on Wednesday, Feb. 26, 2025.
Al Drago/Pool/Sipa USA

An internal GOP poll found a Republican candidate trailing in a special election for a conservative-leaning district in Florida, forcing US President Donald Trump to make a decision aimed at maintaining the Republican Party’s majority in the House.

South Sudan's Vice President Riek Machar, pictured here addressing the press in 2020.

REUTERS/Samir Bol

Alarm bells are ringing ever more loudly in South Sudan, as Vice President Riek Machar — chief rival to Prime Minister Salva Kiir — was arrested late Wednesday in an operation involving 20 armored vehicles at his compound in Juba. He was placed under house arrest, a move that is fueling fears that the country will soon descend into civil war.

Afghan Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani, pictured here at the anniversary event of the departure of the Soviet Union from Afghanistan, in Kabul, Afghanistan, on April 28, 2022.

REUTERS/Ali Khara

The Trump administration has dropped multimillion-dollar bounties on senior Afghan officials from the Haqqani network, a militant faction that carried out some of the deadliest attacks on American troops but has now positioned itself as a moderate wing within the Taliban government. But why?

The Canadian flag flies on Parliament Hill in Ottawa.

REUTERS/Blair Gable

Canada’s foreign interference watchdog is warning that China, India, and Russia plan on meddling in the country’s federal election. The contest, which launched last weekend, has already been marked by a handful of stories about past covert foreign interventions and threats of new ones.

The BMW Foundation is dedicated to addressing concrete challenges that, when solved, create the greatest global impact. With the first challenge, “International Collaboration to Develop Energy Transition and Infrastructure Solutions,” the foundation aims to facilitate international collaboration that accelerates the net-zero transition. Access to reliable and affordable energy powers industries and businesses. Technology is one of the most important drivers for a successful transition, but it is international collaboration that will leapfrog societies across the globe. Find out how the BMW Foundation helps drive collaboration and solutions toward a clean and secure energy future here.