Podcast: A Tale of Two Civil Wars

Transcript

Listen: Civil war has raged in Syria and Yemen for years. Though each conflict is distinct, there are some striking similarities. Today, we go deep on both. Then on Puppet Regime, all systems go for Space Force!

TRANSCRIPT: A Tale of Two Civil Wars

Jane Ferguson:

So, I was put in a car and we just drove the road up there, but I had to be disguised as a Yemeni woman, so full-face veil so that they wouldn't know that a Western journalist was making it into the rebel held areas.

Ian Bremmer:

Hi, I'm Ian Bremmer, and welcome to the GZERO World Podcast, an audio version of what you can find on public television, where I analyze global topics, sit down with big guests, and make use of little puppets. This week I sit down with PBS News Hour's Special Correspondent Jane Ferguson. She recently completed a reporting trip to Yemen that began with her being smuggled into the country. She'll demystify that humanitarian crisis and why the rest of the world should be paying attention. Let's get to it.

Announcer:

The GZERO World is brought to you by our founding sponsor, First Republic. First Republic, a private bank and wealth management company, understands the value of surface, safety and stability in today's uncertain world. Visit firstrepublic.com to learn more.

Ian Bremmer:

I'm delighted to have Jane Ferguson, Special Correspondent from PBS News Hour here with me. Jane, great to be with you.

Jane Ferguson:

Thank you. Thanks for having me.

Ian Bremmer:

So, you were smuggled in into Yemen. My grandmother used to tell me that she was rolled up in the carpet in the back of a truck when she was taken out of Syria. Is that kind of the way it worked for you or not really?

Jane Ferguson:

Well, I was kind of rolled up in a local Yemeni dress. I was able to legally enter southern Yemen, and then I was essentially smuggled to the north. So I was put in a car and we just drove the road up there, but I had to be disguised as a Yemeni woman, so full-face veil so that they wouldn't know that a Western journalist was making it into the rebel held areas.

Ian Bremmer:

Now, I know that you've done this before for part of your living, right? I mean, Mosul front lines, war against ISIS. But you don't look like a Yemeni woman. Are you a little petrified every time you do something like this?

Jane Ferguson:

A little bit, for sure. I think if you weren't scared, you'd be a bit dangerous to yourself. So, I do find it frightening, but I'm always reminded that I'm going somewhere for a specific reason. And this is a story that I have been passionate about and wanting to report for well over two years. This has been hit and miss, trial and error, trying to get in. And so whenever it comes to the one day where you have to do something dangerous like that, you're focused and ready.

Ian Bremmer:

It's one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world today. Why do you think it's not getting the coverage?

Jane Ferguson:

Well, the UN says it is the worst, and that is because of the statistics. We're talking two thirds of the country that can't feed itself by itself. The reason it's not getting the coverage is very simple, and that is because attempts to keep journalists out and block journalists from reporting this story have been very successful.

Ian Bremmer:

Saudi Arabia, of course, an ally of the United States. How does the US government feel about you doing this?

Jane Ferguson:

I don't know, they haven't said. But I would say that there is a certain inconvenient truth to the pictures that are coming out of the north, because the truth is that the US government is helping a military coalition that is on one side of a war, and as long as the war goes on, people will continue to starve, and this could even turn into a full-blown official famine.

Ian Bremmer:

Before we get into what's happening in Yemen, why do you think the United States has been so indifferent and arms-length to what the UN says is the worst humanitarian crisis in the world?

Jane Ferguson:

It comes down to their relationship with the Saudis effectively, who are running this coalition, this military coalition aiding Yemeni groups on the ground, fighting rebels that they believe are heavily backed by and involved with Iran. So it comes down to the side that the United States finds itself on in the regional geopolitics that's going on, and it is that relationship with the Saudis. Now, it's very difficult to address the humanitarian concerns on the ground without holding to account the behaviors of those involved in this war, including, and as it happens because of the blockade, more so even the Saudi role in terms of the hunger.

Ian Bremmer:

The economic blockade that's preventing Yemen from growing?

Jane Ferguson:

Effectively, the economic blockade has collapsed the economy in the north. So, it is a blockade where if aid can come in through the World Food Program, the United Nations, but people can't make a living, so people can no longer afford to buy food, and that's what the crux of the crisis really is.

Ian Bremmer:

Let's talk a little bit about the war in Yemen itself. To the extent that you hear headlines about it, it is portrayed as proxy war between the Saudis and Allies and the Iranians. How true and how much of a simplification is that on the ground?

Jane Ferguson:

On a geopolitical regional scale, it is true that the Saudis are of course backing one side and the Iranians support the other side. But on the ground, it is also very much so a Yemeni war. It's about Yemeni inter-politics. This happened as a result further down the line from the Arab Spring, from the Yemeni dictator who'd been in power for more than 30 years. Ali Abdullah was removed from power. And what you had was something of a House of Cards effect, where the tribes and the more powerful families then basically split apart, and there were schisms within the way Yemen was traditionally run.

Ian Bremmer:

So, this Yemeni economy was not exactly going anywhere before this conflict started. In fact, many described it as one of the biggest impending crises, no water, nothing that they produced. What does it look like now on the ground?

Jane Ferguson:

It's a much, much worse version of exactly what you described. Yemen was the poorest country in the Middle East. Yemen was what we often would say, it was as poor as many African nations. And we've seen hunger crises there before. So, it was a very hungry place, a place that was very vulnerable to this level of hunger.

Ian Bremmer:

Capital had no water.

Jane Ferguson:

Huge water shortages, mismanaged economy, importing well over 80% of their own food. But what has happened really as a result of this conflict, is that food prices have gone up. And you've seen before the war, the largest employer was the state, and the state stopped paying salaries for everybody in the north, over a million people, overnight their income disappeared. And those people are each supporting perhaps a dozen other people, so you're talking millions and millions-

Ian Bremmer:

The family size is very, very large in Yemen.

Jane Ferguson:

Big families. And also, if one member of a family has a job with the government, a steady monthly income, that's hugely valuable and many people will be reliant on that. And so what you're seeing now when you're in the street is just a huge amount of destitution, beggars, not just in the streets in the city, but if you're driving in the country roads you'll see the destitute by the side of the road begging, even in the most remote mountain areas. You'll see people in the markets selling their own furniture. What you're seeing are middle class families who have lost everything.

Ian Bremmer:

Now, when that happens in a place like Syria or Venezuela, it's led to significant refugee crises. Why haven't more Yemenis gotten the hell out of there?

Jane Ferguson:

Well, Yemenis are stuck. If you look at the geography, they're basically surrounded by the nations of the coalition. So to the north, they share a huge border with the Saudis and then to the east, they're basically bordering Oman. But also, the oceans are not safe. There used to be, and there still are some Somalis trying to make it into Yemen on refugee boats because they're trying to get to Saudi Arabia. It hasn't gone the other way because the airstrikes hit these boats.

Ian Bremmer:

So you're saying that right now Yemen is actually a destination for migrants from Somalia still?

Jane Ferguson:

You will, you'll see Somalis walking up the highways north from Aden, the main capital in the south, up to the north of the country, because they're so desperate, they're willing to move through a war zone just to get out.

Ian Bremmer:

So given that, if you are a Yemeni youth today, how many of them in your view, you spent a few months down there, are becoming radicalized or taking up arms? And what is the intention for those that are?

Jane Ferguson:

Depends entirely on where they are. If you're in the north, the Houthis are pushing very, very hard to recruit. They're taking casualties in places like Hudaydah and along the various fighting fronts with the Saudis. So they're desperately trying to recruit people and they're approaching young men and extremely young. They've been criticized many times over the years for recruiting children even. They catch it in terms of a jihad. They say, "We're fighting the Americans. We're fighting those who are supporting Israel." So from that perspective, they're recruiting youth.

Jane Ferguson:

But in the south as well, the coalition, the UAE government and the Saudis, they back various militias and fighting groups. There isn't any, in the south, those fighting on the side of the coalition are not unified, these are various fighting groups. And they'll recruit young people for fighting, basically, so that they can have a meal and a very, very tiny income. And then of course, you have Al-Qaeda. And Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, as they're known in Yemen, are the deadliest offshoot franchise arm of Al-Qaeda globally. And they're benefiting hugely, because chaos helps Al-Qaeda, it always has, and this is the ultimate chaos.

Ian Bremmer:

Now, the Iranians are under an enormous amount of pressure, only going to grow given what's happening to their economy post-US withdrawal from the Iranian deal. That's making them a little more militant and hard line in terms of the government, but it's also reducing their capabilities. How do you think that is likely to play out in terms of Iran's involvement in the Yemen war?

Jane Ferguson:

Well, it depends on what the involvement is. If the involvement was to become expensive, then that would be something that would really be very sensitive back home in Tehran, of course, because people don't want adventurism, they don't want anything that, basically smacks of wasting money on foreign adventures. However, for the Iranians with the decline of the economic situation for them, this has, as you've said, emboldened the hard-liners. And the hard-liners, for the first time in quite some time in Yemen, they do feel like they have perhaps got the Saudis on the back foot.

Jane Ferguson:

This has been... The Saudis went into Yemen thinking that they would be able to defeat the Houthis within months, and that was years ago. From an Iranian perspective, a foothold or at least a really strong relations with any Sanna government would be a huge strategic coup. They share such a massive border with the Saudis in Yemen. But it's important to remember, that we still don't really know the military extent or the extent to the military cooperation. Now of course, the Saudis say the Iranians are bringing in missiles, that Hezbollah's all along that border. There has been an exaggeration of the cooperation because there hasn't been a huge amount of evidence to show that. But it is fair to say that it's likely that the Iranians are helping with those missile strikes.

Ian Bremmer:

But you were there, so I'm wondering what kind of Iranian presence you were either able to see yourself or you were able to understand from the people you were talking to.

Jane Ferguson:

You certainly see a cultural affinity. When you go to these protests or rallies in Sanna by the Houthi rebels, you'll see Hezbollah flags flying, you'll see pictures of Nasrallah and certain-

Ian Bremmer:

The leader of Hezbollah.

Jane Ferguson:

... The leader of Hezbollah and Iranian leading figures as well. It's really important to point out that there isn't a direct religious affinity. There isn't sort of a Shi'a versus Sunni clear line in this war. The Houthis are, they're Zaidi Shi'a's, which is specifically quite Yemeni, and they are not Twelver Shi'a's like the Iranians. They're quite different, and they are not something that would have a direct religious affinity with the Iranians themselves.

Ian Bremmer:

In Syria, we see a lot of Iranians on the ground, fighters engaging with the military. Did you-

Jane Ferguson:

We've not seen anything like that.

Ian Bremmer:

... You've seen literally no Iranians when you're there?

Jane Ferguson:

I've seen, well, nobody that I could identify as an Iranian, absolutely not.

Ian Bremmer:

Nobody told you, "Hey, that's an Iranian." And they didn't like it. No?

Jane Ferguson:

No. It's possible that they have Iranian, it's probably more likely they have Iranian advisors there, and they'll be not allowed anywhere near the streets of Sanaa or out in the open. But it is possible they have advisors helping groups like the Houthis perhaps learn from the experiences of those like Hezbollah in Syria, where they've learned to take a guerilla force and turn them into more of a slightly more conventional army, or at least able to stand their ground against a conventional army.

Ian Bremmer:

How do we even begin to get out of this quagmire?

Jane Ferguson:

The only real progress will be talks, because both sides know they can't win militarily. Even the coalition know they're not going to march all the way up through the mountains to Sanaa. There is inevitably going to be a sit down and talks, but the talks will have to be in good faith. And right now, with the battle for Hudaydah basically-

Ian Bremmer:

This is the port?

Jane Ferguson:

... Yeah, this is the main port in the west of the country where all of the, most of the aid and food is coming in through. And that is currently controlled by the Houthis. And the coalition really want it. They want to be able to take that port, not just for tactical reasons on the battlefield, but because that will put them in a much stronger position for those talks when they inevitably have to sit down with the Houthis and discuss the formation of some sort of framework for peace and forming of a government. If they control Hudaydah, then they'll be in a much stronger position and the Houthis will be on the back foot. So it's about trying-

Ian Bremmer:

So they don't want talks until they're in a stronger position?

Jane Ferguson:

... Exactly.

Ian Bremmer:

And the Saudis are unprepared to support that?

Jane Ferguson:

The Saudis don't want to be forced to the negotiating table before they've done everything they can to take Hudaydah.

Ian Bremmer:

So, let me talk about your trip personally for a second. So you go in and you're smuggled in sort of full hijab.

Jane Ferguson:

Yes.

Ian Bremmer:

You said that you've been going, and clearly a lot of people were happy to see coverage from an international journalist on the ground. But how comfortable are they with Western sensibilities, with a professional woman running a team, running around, clearly you're kind of an oddity for them? Did you feel any level of discomfort, lack of safety as a consequence of that?

Jane Ferguson:

Never really lack of safety, because I'm a Westerner or because I'm a woman. Yemen is this incredibly polite society. People there are quite formal. It's a very proud society as well. Interestingly, the whole time I was there, nobody once asked me for money. And Yemenis are too proud to beg. But they're also, they're very formal and they're very polite people. And so, whenever you're dealing with them, I never felt like I had to deal with excessive levels of machismo, difficult egos with a female person in charge of the team.

Ian Bremmer:

To the extent that people have heard things about Yemen, one of the things that they have heard is "qat," right? It's a good Scrabble word. It's got a q, it doesn't involve you. And it's this mild narcotic, takes way too much water, and apparently all of the men in public are chewing it.

Jane Ferguson:

And women, in not public.

Ian Bremmer:

Not in public, which is an interesting dynamic. So how does that affect interactions with people, productivity for those that have jobs? I mean, how much, is that just a weird thing for you to deal with?

Jane Ferguson:

Perhaps? When I first started going, yeah, it was, but now qat is something you have to accept. It is so pervasive in the culture. It's like telling New Yorkers they're not allowed to have a cup of coffee.

Ian Bremmer:

How does society work when a majority of the population is addicted to this thing?

Jane Ferguson:

Well qat, it can be chewed on the go. It's not like doing a heavy, heavy narcotic. Your driver will often be just chewing cut while he drives.

Ian Bremmer:

Jane Ferguson, glad you're back.

Jane Ferguson:

Thank you.

Ian Bremmer:

That's our show this week. We'll be right back here in next week. Same place, same time. Unless you're watching on social media in which case it's wherever you happen to be. Don't miss it. In the meantime, check us out at gzeromedia.com.

Announcer:

The GZERO World is brought to you by our founding sponsor, first Republic. First Republic, a private bank and wealth management company understands the value of surface, safety and stability in today's uncertain world. Visit firstrepublic.com to learn more.