Are US threats making Iran rethink retaliation against Israel?

The US has been scrambling to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East in the wake of attacks that killed top figures in Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran and Hezbollah have both vowed to retaliate against Israel over the assassinations, though it remains unclear when or how they’ll strike back.

New reporting suggests Tehran, which wants to avoid a wider war, may not pursue a large-scale response and could take a more limited approach — such as targeting Mossad. And the US has reportedly warned Iran that its new government and economy would be at “serious risk” if it moves forward with a significant attack against the Jewish state.

But Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at Eurasia Group, says he hasn’t seen anything from the Iranian side to back up the notion Tehran is planning to “scale back its response.”

“It’s not at all unusual that Iran is taking its time before responding, as it did in April when it waited two full weeks,” says Brew, referencing the massive barrage of missiles and drones Iran fired at Israel in retaliation for a deadly strike on its Damascus consulate.

The April attack was overwhelmingly intercepted by Israel and its allies. Had there been heavy civilian casualties, it’s possible an all-out war could’ve broken out in the region.

However they move forward in the days ahead, both Iran and Hezbollah are “likely to avoid causing significant civilian casualties, which Israel has indicated as a red line,” says Brew, because neither wants to end up in a wider war. But it’s a “tough line for Iran and Hezbollah to walk, and if the attacks do cause more damage than anticipated, there will be pressure within Israel to respond in kind, raising the risks of a broader regional escalation that could potentially pull in the US,” adds Brew.

Hezbollah has pledged to retaliate with or without allies. But the response is still likely to be “unmistakably launched in a coordinated fashion,” says Brew, even if Hezbollah and Iran attack different targets at separate times.