Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Is Israel and Hezbollah on the brink of all-out war?
Certainly hope not. You made me bet I'd say no. Keep in mind, oil prices haven't moved despite the fact that everyone's talking about all-out war. Certainly the Israeli government and the Israeli defense forces are talking about all-out war after Hezbollah, rocket strikes, which they denied, but clearly did come from them and killed some 11 children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Having said that, Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, who is very, very strident in wanting to ensure that the Gaza war continues until Hamas is fully destroyed, has been very cautious about starting a war with a Hezbollah that is far better armed and trained than Hamas is. So on the one hand, they do want to brush Hezbollah back. They want to cause more damage to them. They want to get the Hezbollah forces away from the Israeli border so the Israelis can come back to their homes, to their schools. On the other hand, I think the likelihood of all-out war is actually pretty low. And I think that's why oil prices are haven't moved since all this, because markets also don't believe this is coming.
How will the new US military aid pledge to the Philippines affect relations with China?
I think this is an area where both sides, like with Hezbollah, do not want conflict to get worse. Most important to me was the fact that the Philippines and China, behind the scenes broken by the United States, agreed to a mechanism where they would both regularly talk military to military, and where China would not try to stop the Philippines from just getting food and normal supplies to the Scuppered ship on the Scarborough Shoal, the contested Scarborough Shoal. That isn't just a matter of talking about it. There now has been a Philippine military vessel that's gotten through with those supplies, and they were not harassed by the Chinese military. That's a really good step, especially in a context of relationship that has been very tense for quite a long time.
What is the likelihood that Biden's call for Supreme Court reform will lead to any change?
Zero. Literally zero, unless the Democrats, Kamala Harris wins the presidency, the Democrats take the Senate and they take the House, and the filibuster in the Senate is gone. Very low chance of that happening. If that were to happen, then I think you absolutely would see Supreme Court reform. And that would change the nature of the checks and balances in the US political system.
By the way, I think the filibuster would also be gone if Republicans ran the slate and take the Senate, which is much more likely than the Democrats doing so. Either way, what we're seeing are political norms and institutions continuing to erode. But what Biden is doing right now with the Supreme Court reform is understood to be purely for campaign purposes and has zero chance of coming into law.