Brexit From All Angles

Brinkmanship – "the technique or practice of maneuvering a dangerous situation to the limits of tolerance or safety in order to secure the greatest advantage, especially by creating diplomatic crises."

For a colorful example, look at what Boris Johnson did this week. On Wednesday, the UK prime minister announced a five-week suspension of parliament in September and October.

Critics say Johnson's move undermines democracy by stripping lawmakers of precious time for debate and action on Brexit before October 31, when the UK is set to leave the EU. Johnson's defenders insist that there's still time for parliament to meet its responsibilities, that this action is perfectly normal, and that the real threat to democracy comes from those who would frustrate the British people's will by blocking Brexit.

To understand what's happening and where this is going, consider what each of the major players in this drama wants…

Boris Johnson – The prime minister wants to scare the Europeans into believing that he's serious about leaving the EU with "no deal," inflicting serious economic harm on both the UK and the continent. Why the threat? Because he wants Brussels to make concessions on the terms of Brexit that they didn't give to his predecessor, Theresa May. In particular, he wants them to drop the controversial Irish backstop, a provision that could keep the UK tied to the EU customs union indefinitely.

But to make that "no deal" threat credible, Johnson must do all he can to prevent UK lawmakers from taking actions that limit his options.

Jeremy Corbyn – The leader of Britain's opposition Labour Party wants new elections so that he can negotiate his own Brexit deal as Britain's new prime minister. Corbyn opposed the UK's entry into the EU decades ago, and his unwillingness to state a clear position on Brexit since the referendum in 2016 has frustrated Britons on all sides of this issue.

Other opposition leaders – Jo Swinson, leader of the Liberal Democrats, wants to halt Brexit. That means bringing down Boris Johnson's government, but without helping Corbyn become prime minister, even during an emergency period before elections can be held. That's because, given the damage that Brexit has done to both Conservatives and Labour, new elections might play in the LibDems' favor.

Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party, would like to one day become the first prime minister of an independent Scotland. It appears 2020 might be too soon for another referendum, but antipathy in Scotland for Boris Johnson is helping her case, and his decision to suspend parliament further fuels that fire.

European leaders – EU leaders have differing opinions on Brexit, but most want to make the process as painful as possible for Britain in order to discourage any other EU countries from trying to leave the union in the future. They also don't want to reopen internal negotiations among 27 EU governments over the deal offered to the UK.

What's next? Boris Johnson has taken extreme measures to further his strategy, and his critics in parliament will likely do the same. We could see a strong push for a vote of no-confidence in his government as soon as next week.

If so, Johnson may well call for general elections to be scheduled for the weeks after the October 31 Brexit deadline. The Europeans, watching the resulting fury, will refuse to give Johnson any of the substantive concessions he wants.

In the meantime, the stakes and the anger on all sides will continue to rise.

More from GZERO Media

Graphic of exit poll data
Luisa Vieira

The votes are still being tallied following Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election, but looking at preliminary voter data gives clues to what happened in the American electorate last week.

Palestinians carry an aid box distributed by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Deir Al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, November 4, 2024.
REUTERS/Ramadan Abed

Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he will nominate former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee to serve as US ambassador to Israel.

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump and Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) react during a campaign event at Dorton Arena, in Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S. November 4, 2024.
REUTERS/Jonathan Drake

Based on his picks so far, immigration will be at the top of Trump’s agenda as he appears poised to follow through with his campaign promises on this issue.

- YouTube

In a GZERO Global Stage discussion at the 7th annual Paris Peace Forum, Teresa Hutson, Corporate Vice President at Microsoft, reflected on the anticipated impact of generative AI and deepfakes on global elections. Despite widespread concerns, she noted that deepfakes did not significantly alter electoral outcomes. Instead, Hutson highlighted a more subtle effect: the erosion of public trust in online information, a phenomenon she referred to as the "liar's dividend."

Photogrammetry, AI, and digital preservation combine to create a digital twin of St. Peter’s Basilica with over 400,000 images, allowing visitors to explore it in detail from anywhere in the world. La Basilica di San Pietro — a collaboration between the Vatican, Iconem, and Microsoft — gives everyone full access to Vatican City’s most iconic church via AI-enabled immersive exhibits and an interactive website. Learn more about the project and explore the digital twin here.

Proud Source Water became a Walmart supplier in 2021. Today, their team has grown 50%, and they're the largest employer in Mackay, ID. When local suppliers work with Walmart, their business can grow. In fact, two-thirds of Walmart's product spend is on products made, grown, or assembled in America. By working with Walmart, local businesses like Proud Source Water can reach more customers, hire more people, and help their communities thrive. Explore the positive impact of Walmart's $350 billion investment in US manufacturing.

A general view of the German lower house of parliament, in Berlin, Germany.
REUTERS/Lisi Niesner

Under a plan agreed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the opposition, Europe’s largest economy is now headed toward early elections in February.