Unless some strange things happen, the next prime minister of Canada is likely to be an ambitious, high-achieving Albertan who made a mark on the world stage after excelling at Harvard and Oxford.
We don’t know yet whether that Albertan will be Mark Carney or Chrystia Freeland. But whoever becomes the Liberal Party leader on March 9 is unlikely to ever live in the official residence, because Justin Trudeau will probably still be packing boxes by the time his successor faces a different Albertan in an election.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has an enormous lead in the national polls, which have not moved despite Trudeau announcing his long-pined-for resignation. The polls may move when the Liberals pick a new leader, but not enough to stop a Conservative landslide this spring.
It is impressive in a way that both Carney and Freeland — both extraordinarily accomplished people — have decided the race is worth the trouble because it looks like all the winner will get is a chance to lose. (House Leader Karina Gould is also running, but she is unlikely to find a way to be competitive in such a short race.)
A lot to give up
It is particularly striking that Carney — the former governor of the central banks in both Canada and England — is willing to give up a lucrative life in lush boardrooms for a difficult and uncertain political career. He has resigned as chair of both Brookfield Asset Management and Bloomberg LP and disentangled himself from a variety of other desirable gigs, giving up goodness knows how much money.
He must think he can win the leadership — and believe he has some chance of beating Poilievre — or he wouldn’t be doing all that.
Carney looks like he will win the first race. He kicked off his campaign by cracking jokes during a successful interview with Jon Stewart last week on “The Daily Show,” which drew approving reviews from Canadian Liberals who previously had found him staid, even for a banker.
But, without Stewart to loosen him up, he appeared wooden during his official launch in Edmonton, a sign of his inexperience as a politician.
Emotional and divisive
Freeland doesn’t have that problem. A former journalist who impressed Canadians with her toughness during trade negotiations with Donald Trump during his first term, she will be a formidable opponent. In her launch video, she presented herself as the candidate best suited to stand up to Trump, who is threatening to impose economy-killing tariffs on Canada.
But Freeland’s launch was interrupted by Gaza protesters and overshadowed by news that Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly — a crucial organizer in Quebec — would support Carney. Former Minister Navdeep Bains — a crucial organizer in the rest of the country — is also said to be on Team Carney, as are a growing number of prominent ministers. On Sunday, François-Philippe Champagne, the influential industry minister, is expected to endorse Carney, adding a note of finality.
Canada’s Middle East policy has not emerged as a point of debate — there have not yet been any debates — but it appears to be a dividing line in the race ahead, judging from how supporters are sorting themselves. Joly has often been criticized by Israel’s supporters, and they were quick to see her Carney endorsement as a bad sign.
Freeland has spoken up for Israel in the past, while Carney has no public record on the issue but appears to be attracting supporters who are more critical.
They will likely both be challenged to take a position as the race continues, which may damage whoever wins. An emotional and divisive dispute over Middle East policy is exactly what the Liberal Party doesn’t need as it gets ready to face Poilievre, who is strongly pro-Israel — but it may be what the party gets.
An outsider? Really?
Whether that so-far sublimated division emerges into the open or not, Carney is likely to win. He has the advantage because of “the short timeline, the high buy-in, and just the sheer number of early caucus support he’s gotten,” says pollster Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Research.
“In a long leadership, caucus matters very little. In a short leadership like this, where each caucus member is going to bring to the table a couple hundred supporters from their riding to be able to sign up for this, it matters a lot.”
And Freeland faces challenges. She will find it hard to distance herself from unpopular Trudeau policies since she was his deputy prime minister.
Carney was on the sidelines, giving him more of a credible claim to being, as he called himself on “The Daily Show,” an “outsider.” The Conservatives will ridicule that, pointing to his public support of carbon pricing, for example, but they might have to work up a sweat to make it stick. It is already stuck on Freeland.
“He’s got a lot to prove,” said a senior Liberal who prefers to remain anonymous. “Freeland has a lot to disprove, which means, I think that he has the easier go of it.”
And the manner in which Freeland left the Trudeau government — resigning on the day she was to deliver a fall economic update and throwing the government into chaos — may not sit well even with those Liberals who were relieved to see Trudeau pushed out.
There’s an old adage in politics: She who wields the knife never wears the crown.
It would be hard for her to win, but Carney — who is entering a demanding new profession at age 59 — might find a way to lose.
Whoever comes out on top will almost immediately face the fearsome Poilievre, giving them a good chance of beating the record set by Charles Tupper, who had the shortest tenure as Canadian prime minister when he served for just 68 days in 1896.