Could North Korea Be the Cuba of North Korea?

One of the big questions coming out of last week’s historic Korea summit is: what does Kim Jong-un actually want out of all of this feelgood summitry?

One possible answer, presented over the weekend, is that Mr Kim will give up his nuclear weapons in exchange for a promise from the US not to invade his country.

Interesting. The North Koreans have often pointed to the grim fates of Libya’s Muammar Qaddafi and Iraq’s Saddam Hussein as examples of what happens when you give up WMDs (or fail to develop them). Neither of those men, of course, ever got an explicit promise from the US not to invade.

The only example we can think of in which Washington has done such a thing (hat tip to Willis, resident expert on the 1960s) came in 1962 when US President John F Kennedy defused the Cuban Missile Crisis by assuring Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev that the US wouldn’t invade Cuba provided the island stayed verifiably free of nuclear weapons. Sure enough, half a century later, Fidel Castro died in his bed rather than at the wrong end of a bayonet or a noose.

Could Kim hope for a similar outcome? We’re skeptical. Cuba after 1962 posed almost no military threat to the US or its allies, making it relatively easy for JFK to forswear action against the country, particularly given the real possibility that the Soviets would have intervened on Havana’s behalf.

But North Korea today maintains the world’s fourth largest standing army, a formidable conventional force that could easily threaten South Korea, Japan, or US troops in the region. It’s hard to see the Trump administration tying itself to a no-invasion promise given the strategic challenges that even a denuclearized North Korea would pose.

Of course, if you’re Kim, you’re also aware that a promise not to invade isn’t the same thing as a promise not to send, say, an oversized exploding mollusk to kill you while you are scuba diving (you have to click on this link, do it.) All of which is to say, it’s hard to imagine the US making — or Kim believing — a promise not to invade the North.

More from GZERO Media

- YouTube

If China, Japan, and South Korea formed a united front, what kind of leverage would they have in negotiating against US tariffs? I think they are heading in that trajectory. The question is, will it be enough to keep Syria stable and away from descending into civil war? Why does Trump want to take Greenland? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

President Donald Trump, seen here on the South Lawn of the White House in February, is set to unveil his "Liberation Day" tariffs.

REUTERS/Craig Hudson

T-Day has arrived. On Wednesday afternoon, Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on US trade partners will take effect immediately after a Rose Garden announcement.

A giant screen in Beijing shows news footage about the People's Liberation Army (PLA) joint army, navy, air and rocket forces drills around Taiwan on April 1, 2025.
REUTERS/Florence Lo

Beijing conducted one of the largest and most provocative military drills ever around the island -- but why now?

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks during a briefing, Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 28, 2025.
Ukrinform/ABACA via Reuters Connect

Vladimir Putin insists that Volodymyr Zelensky is no longer Ukraine’s legitimate president because his government has imposed martial law and delayed elections that were due in 2024.

President Donald Trump speaks from the Oval Office flanked by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on the day he signed executive orders for reciprocal tariffs, Feb. 13, 2025.
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Details of a group chat between senior administration officials that leaked last week – the so-called Houthi PC small group – provide allies, adversaries, and watchers with revealing insights into the administration’s foreign policy blueprint. Lindsay Newman explores the takeaways.

Proud Source became a Walmart supplier in 2021. Today, its team has grown by 50%, and it's the largest employer in Mackay, ID. Walmart supports small businesses across the country, and nearly two-thirds of Walmart's product spend is on products made, grown, or assembled in America. It’s all a part of Walmart’s $350 billion investment in US manufacturing, which helps small businesses grow and supports US jobs. Learn more about Walmart’s commitment to US manufacturing.

As Microsoft celebrates its 50th anniversary, Vice Chair and President Brad Smith sits down with company cofounder Bill Gates for a special episode of Tools and Weapons. They discuss Gates’ new memoir, "Source Code: My Beginnings," reflect on Microsoft’s impact over the past five decades, and explore why the next phase of the digital revolution is shaping up to be the most exciting yet. Subscribe and find new episodes monthly, wherever you listen to podcasts.