Less than two weeks before the US presidential election, polls and projections are pointing to a photo finish. The New York Times has Democratic contender Kamala Harrisup a point over Republican Donald Trump, and both are within one or two points of each other in the seven battleground states that may decide the election.
While Harris enjoys an advantage in the Electoral College, according to 270 to Win, the 538 model has Trump winning 51 times out of 100 simulations compared to Harris’ 49 wins. The point? The race could come down to a few thousand votes in one county or another as control of the White House hangs in the balance.
With such a razor-thin margin, absentee ballots from Americans abroad (expats in Canada, we’re looking at you!) could prove decisive.
Millions of votes from abroad are up for grabs
According to the US Federal Voting Assistance Program, or FVAP, which helps citizens outside the country and those in the armed forces cast ballots, there are roughly 3 million eligible voters outside the US, though some scholars suggest there could be even more. Over 600,000 of them — a whopping 20% — are in Canada.
FVAP, however, estimates that a mere 7.8% of eligible voters cast a ballot from outside the US in 2020. Turnout was 8% from Canada and 9% from the UK.
In the fall of 2023, the US had just over 170,000 active duty military personnel stationed in 178 countries. In terms of raw numbers, the top five states of origin for troops are California, Texas, Florida, New York, and, crucially, the swing state of Georgia.
In 2020, over 40% of citizens covered under the Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA), which includes members of the military and their families and US citizens living abroad, had a legal voting residence in three states: California, Florida, and Washington. Since 2016, the majority of these registered voters have been civilians rather than uniformed personnel.
Both parties want to reach voters abroad, but Dems have an advantage
In 2020, Joe Bidenbested Trump by over 4% in the popular vote and 74 Electoral College votes, but that win was closer than it seemed as the Democrats eked out victories in a few states with narrow margins. Biden’s win margin in Wisconsin was a mere 0.63% and an ultra-thin 0.23% in Georgia. The victory was reminiscent of Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 by fewer than 80,000 votes in three battleground states.
This year, each campaign is working hard to get eligible voters to cast absentee ballots, which could prove decisive in swing states. In fact, both former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Obama-era US ambassador to Canada Bruce Heyman think votes from abroad could determine the outcome of the presidential race, and they argue that Democrats should be out marshaling them.
Heyman says Americans in Canada alone could tilt the race, with nearly 606,000 Americans there eligible to vote, including plenty who can cast ballots in the swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Some Democrats are even going door to door in Windsor, Ontario, just across from Detroit, to mobilize US voters.
The purported Democratic advantage in voters abroad explains why the party is spending $300,000 to reach out to them through Democrats Abroad, which aims to register and help Americans outside the country vote — and to help elect Democrats.
The DNC says there are roughly 1.6 million Americans abroad who are eligible to vote in the seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Vote From Abroad says the majority of these voters are likely to be Democrats.
Democrats Abroad claims to have played a “pivotal” role in growing the vote from abroad in 2020 by 73.5% over 2016. “As a result, overseas votes made up the margin of victory for White House and Senate races in Georgia and Arizona” and were greater than Biden’s win margin in those same states, it says.
The group also says that since Biden stepped aside, registration by voters outside the US through the organization has increased 100% – a jump that could be decisive, especially if it is correct that roughly half the ballots requested in 2020 by voters abroad, excluding military personnel, were cast in swing states.
The GOP has its own program for voters abroad, Republican Overseas, which aims to identify and mobilize voters. While the Trump campaign has sought to appeal to this base by supporting “ending double taxation” for Americans working overseas, it’s also seeking to limit their votes (more on that below).
Kym Kettler, a spokesperson for the group, reminds us that overseas votes won George W. Bush the close 2000 race in Florida — and the White House — as a mere 537 overseas ballots tipped the scales for the Republicans.
Court challenges could complicate things
Trump is claiming, without evidence, that overseas votes are fraudulent and a threat to a free and fair election, suggesting the Democrats will use the UOCAVA to collect ballots without checking citizenship — which isn’t how it works.
With the Democrats at an expected advantage with votes from abroad, Republicans are challenging absentee voter laws, especially in swing states.
Noah Daponte-Smith, an analyst at Eurasia Group, says that Americans living abroad could absolutely make a difference in the presidential election in favor of Democrats, which is why Republicans are seeking changes to election rules.
“Republicans don’t want the vote from abroad to possibly mess up their route to the White House,” he says. “So there’s an effort to make it difficult for them to vote because that could be the margin."
Republicans have filed over 100 lawsuits aimed at raising the bar for voting from abroad — or having those votes counted. The measures they seek include requiring that ballots count only if received by Election Day, rather than being postmarked by that day.
New GOP suits in Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania are taking aim at identity verification and eligibility requirements for voters abroad. But judges in Michigan and North Carolina shot down efforts to block some overseas votes in those states and rejected Republican claims of overseas voter fraud — while the judge in Michigan went so far as to call the suit an “attempt to disenfranchise” voters.
Experts are concerned that whether or not the lawsuits succeed, they may deprive voters since just casting doubt on the process for voters abroad may depress turnout and sow distrust in the result — which may be decided, one way or another, by votes from abroad.