Donald Trump is a convicted felon

Donald Trump is officially the first former US president to be convicted of a crime. A New York jury on Thursday found him guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records related to a hush money payment to former porn star Stormy Daniels, which prosecutors alleged was motivated by a desire to protect his 2016 presidential campaign.

The US is in uncharted waters. Trump is the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, but will this verdict impact his candidacy or the race more generally? Not really, says Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's head of research and US managing director.

"Voters have shown no indication they care about this trial at all so far, instead focusing on issues like the economy, immigration, senior services, crime, but not really Trump's trials," says Lieber. But he acknowledges that this "could change through the course of the campaign."

Trump’s sentencing is scheduled for July 11, just four days before the Republican National Convention — where he’s expected to be crowned the GOP nominee once again — is set to begin. The conviction does not bar Trump from running from office or serving as president if he wins.

Prison time? Trump — who plans to appeal the verdict — could be sentenced to up to four years in prison, though legal experts are skeptical the ex-president will find himself behind bars given he does not have a criminal record and did not commit a violent crime.

Outside the courthouse, New Yorkers celebrated the verdict. The crowd was small, likely because the jury's verdict came only 30 minutes after they announced they were ready, but those who were there skewed against Trump. “Today proved that all men are equal under the law, and will be accountable under the law,” said Sam Oscar, who raced to the courthouse after seeing the notification on their phone. "Today is an excellent day for democracy.”

But is it? Americans will likely interpret the ruling along polarized lines. While liberals in Manhattan rejoice, MAGA will cry "rigged." Trump has exploited the trial to convince his followers that he is the victim of political persecution, a lie that the guilty ruling will only reinforce.

For more on this: Catch Jon Lieber's look at the Trump verdict here.