Donald Trump survives assassination attempt. What happens next?

What happened: Shots rang out at a rally for Donald Trump on Saturday in Butler, PA. The former president – who was speaking at the podium – dropped to the ground and was surrounded by the Secret Service before standing with what appeared to be blood dripping from the right side of his face. He then pumped his fist into the air and was whisked away by his guards.

The Secret Service issued a statement Saturday evening indicating that the shooter aimed from atop a nearby rooftop and was “neutralized,” and that one spectator was killed while another two were critically injured. The FBI has identified the suspected shooter as Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old registered Republican from Bethel Park, PA.

A few hours after being rushed from the scene, Trump took to Truth Social to thank the Secret Service. His upper right ear was hit by a bullet, he explained. “I knew immediately that something was wrong in that I heard a whizzing sound, shots, and immediately felt the bullet ripping through the skin,” he wrote. “Much bleeding took place, so I realized then what was happening. GOD BLESS AMERICA!”

The United States has not seen this level of political violence since the assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan in 1981 in Washington, DC.

President Joe Biden was quick to respond to the violence, saying that he is “grateful to hear that [Trump is] safe and doing well” and that he’s “praying for him and his family and for all those who were at the rally, as we await further information.”

“There’s no place for this kind of violence in America. We must unite as one nation to condemn it,” Biden emphasized.

The Biden campaign has reportedly suspended its campaign ads, and elected officials on both sides of the aisle have condemned the shooting, denouncing political violence and hoping for Trump’s recovery.

Eurasia Group and GZERO President Ian Bremmer says it’s essential that everyone across the American political spectrum denounce the violence. “Ideally, that is done in a bipartisan manner, that is done in Congress, in the House, and in the Senate. Not with individual posts, and comments, and tweets, but from the entirety of a joint session condemning it and working for peace,” he says. “That’s what the country needs.”

What to expect: Trump’s quick reaction and defiant fist pump will likely cement his image as a political martyr – and benefit his campaign in the runup to the November election. “That response, and being caught on tape,” says Bremmer, “is going to be a rally for his people for a long time.” All eyes will be on Trump’s appearance at the upcoming Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, which gets underway on Monday.

It may also lead to a slew of conspiracy theories that the Democratic Party was responsible, while Democrats are likely to wonder whether it was staged by the Trump campaign to boost him in the polls.

While the motivation of the shooter remains unknown, political tensions have been rising in the United States in recent years. Nearly 25% of Americans agree that “patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country,” and 75% believe that American democracy is at risk in the 2024 presidential election.

Against that backdrop, and with political extremism and disinformation having been weaponized through the media landscape, especially social media, Bremmer says today’s attempt on Trump’s life means “we should be prepared for more violence.”