Election dispute ignites military confrontation in Somalia’s Jubbaland

​Jubbaland forces carry their ammunitions during a security patrol against Islamist al Shabaab militants in Bulagaduud town, north of Kismayu, Somalia.
Jubbaland forces carry their ammunitions during a security patrol against Islamist al Shabaab militants in Bulagaduud town, north of Kismayu, Somalia.
REUTERS/Abdiqani Hassan
On Wednesday, fighting broke out in Somalia’s semi-autonomous Jubbaland between regional and federal government forces. The violence came after Jubbaland held an election without Mogadishu’s authorization that granted Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe a third consecutive term.

What happened? When Jubbaland ignored the federal government’s opposition to the election, Mogadishu issued an arrest warrant for Madobe, and Jubbaland responded by issuing a reciprocal warrant for President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.

Somalia's defense minister accused the Jubbaland forces of initiating the clashes on Wednesday, but the federal government responded with drone strikes, and both sides are reporting casualties.

Why it matters: The fighting is taking place in a strategically important region. Jubbaland, one of Somalia’s five semi-autonomous regions, is situated adjacent to Kenya and Ethiopia. It is Somalia’s breadbasket, its shoreline delineates a contested maritime zone with Kenya, with potential oil and gas deposits, and Kismayu is a key port.

More from GZERO Media

President-elect Donald Trump appears remotely for a sentencing hearing in front of New York State Judge Juan Merchan in his hush money case at New York Criminal Court in New York City, on Jan. 10, 2025.
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/Pool

President-elect Donald Trump was sentenced in his New York hush money case on Friday but received no punishment from Judge Juan M. Merchan, who issued an unconditional discharge with no jail time, probation, or fines

Paige Fusco

In a way, Donald Trump’s return means Putin has finally won. Not because of the silly notion that Trump is a “Russian agent” – but because it closes the door finally and fully on the era of post-Cold War triumphalist globalism that Putin encountered when he first came to power.

Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado greets supporters at a protest ahead of the Friday inauguration of President Nicolas Maduro for his third term, in Caracas, Venezuela January 9, 2025.
REUTERS/Leonardo Fernandez Viloria

Regime forces violently detained Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado as she left a rally in Caracas on Thursday, one day before strongman President Nicolás Maduro was set to begin his third term.

Paige Fusco

Justin Trudeau is leaving you, Donald Trump is coming for you. The timing couldn’t be worse. The threat couldn’t be bigger. The solutions couldn’t be more elusive, writes GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon.

- YouTube

Is international order on the precipice of collapse? 2025 is poised to be a turbulent year for the geopolitical landscape. From Canada and South Korea to Japan and Germany, the world faces a “deepening and rare absence of global leadership with more chaos than any time since the 1930s,” says Eurasia Group chairman Cliff Kupchan during a GZERO livestream to discuss the 2025 Top Risks report.

During the Munich Security Conference 2025, the BMW Foundation will again host the BMW Foundation Herbert Quandt Pavilion. From February 13th to 15th, we will organize panels, keynotes, and discussions focusing on achieving energy security and economic prosperity through innovation, policy, and global cooperation. The BMW Foundation emphasizes the importance of science-based approaches and believes that the energy transition can serve as a catalyst for economic opportunity, sustainability, and democratic resilience. Our aim is to facilitate solution-oriented dialogues between business, policy, science, and civil society to enhance Europe’s competitiveness in the energy and technology sectors, build a strong economy, and support a future-proof society. Read more about the BMW Foundation and our Pavilion at the Munich Security Conference here.