Enemy's Enemy's Friend's Enemy: Post-ISIS Syria

Over the past three weeks, the war in Syria has taken a(nother) turn for the worse. Israel, Russia, and Turkey have all lost aircraftthere. US-led forces have clashed directly with Russian-backed pro-regime militia fighters, Assad’s air force is ferociously pounding rebels, jihadists, and civilians in Idlib province, and Turkish troops are advancing against US-backed Kurdish militants along the northern border.

Why now? The kaleidoscope of interests in Syria is shifting again, in part because ISIS — the one constant enemy of everyone’s friend’s enemy’s friend — has been largely defeated, at least militarily.

But with ISIS out of the picture and the Assad regime’s survival now all but assured, the various players and proxies are pressing to maximize their leverage ahead of any peace settlement. In brief, who wants what?

Assad: reclaim as much territory from rebels and jihadists as possible ahead of peace talks that will doubtless confirm him as the leader of post-war Syria. For now this means bombing Idlib, one of the last strongholds of the insurgency and Al Qaeda-affiliated militants.

Turkey: prevent US-backed Kurdish militants from translating their military success against ISIS into external support for an autonomous Kurdish statelet in Northern Syria.

Russia: broker a settlement that makes Putin look like a wise and indispensable statesman on the global stage, while also securing Syria as a lily-pad for projecting Russian military power into the region.

Iran: secure Syria as a client state that acts both as a permanent land corridor linking Iran with its proxies in Lebanon and opens another proxy front line with long-time adversary Israel.

Israel: prevent Iran from doing just that — the downed Israeli jet was returning from a mission to bomb targets in Syria after Israel spotted what it said was an Iranian drone crossing into Israeli airspace.

Syrian Kurds: history hasn’t been kind to the hardy Kurds, but they’ll give it a go again: they want to translate their military success into political autonomy… this time inside Syria.

The United States: unclear — Trump has framed the United States’ relatively limited involvement primarily in counter-terrorism terms, leaving uncertainty about what, precisely, the US wants out of any political settlement. Washington’s initial “Assad must go” position is obviously a non-starter now.

More from GZERO Media

Marine Tondelier, of Les Ecologistes party, talks to journalists next to colleagues as they leave a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Dec. 10. They had met with the French president as part of consultations aimed at appointing a new prime minister.
REUTERS/Stephanie Lecocq

On Tuesday, France’s President Emmanuel Macron hosted a meeting with the leaders of center, center-right, and center-left political parties at the Elysee Palace in a bid to end France’s political crisis by building support for a new prime minister and a 2025 budget.

- YouTube

President-elect Donald Trump has made no secret of his love of tariffs, vowing steep import taxes on China, Mexico, Canada, and almost every product that crosses the US border on his first day in office. Will they boost US jobs and manufacturing, as Trump promises, or lead to rising inflation, as many economists warn? On GZERO World, Oren Cass, founder and chief economist at conservative think tank American Compass, joins Ian Bremmer for an in-depth discussion about Trump’s tariff plan and the future of US-China trade policy.

A Microsoft logo is pictured on a store in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York.
REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/File Photo

The US government has reportedly permitted Microsoft to export advanced AI chips to one of its own facilities in the United Arab Emirates.

David Sacks, former CEO of Zenefits, is seen here speaking at a 2016 TechCrunch Disrupt in San Francisco, California.
REUTERS/Beck Diefenbach/File Photo

Not only is he a close friend of Elon Musk, who is leading a government efficiency committee for Trump, but Sacks has spent the last few years as one of the loudest voices supporting Trump from the upper echelons of Silicon Valley.

A man rides a scooter past a giant screen showing news footage of Chinese President Xi Jinping attending a Chinese Communist Party politburo meeting, in Beijing, China December 9, 2024.
REUTERS/Tingshu Wang

China’s Politburo — the top leadership cabinet — said Monday it would take “more proactive” fiscal measures and loosen up its monetary policy in 2025 as it aims to boost domestic consumption.