A flotilla of Philippine fishing vessels was put to sea Wednesday to assert sovereignty over the disputed Scarborough Shoal — where China has dozens of ships waiting for them. Chinese vessels have injured sailors with water cannons over disputed shoals in the South China Sea before, so Manila has dispatched Coast Guard vessels and an aircraft to monitor the situation.
The exercise is organized by NGOAtin Ito (“This is ours” in Tagalog), which plans to deploy symbolic buoys and leave supply caches for fishermen on the atoll. Anglers from the Philippines, Vietnam, and China have all used the low-lying lagoon to shelter their vessels from storms for centuries, but in 2012, Beijing used Coast Guard vessels to seize it. A UN tribunal rejected China’s claim in 2016, but Beijing has ignored the ruling.
China’s intransigence has created a dangerous situation. Both sides see their claims to the South China Sea as a sovereignty issue and aren’t willing to drop disputes over the uninhabited shoals. China’s behavior is already pushing the limit by immobilizing Filipino ships and injuring their crews, knowing Manila can’t respond effectively. If China should kill a sailor, however, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has said he could activate the defense treaty with the United States — which US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin vowed to uphold last month — and China can’t play grabass with the 7th Fleet.
We’re watching to see how many civilian flotilla boats make it to the Scarborough Shoal, and how aggressively China’s Coast Guard responds.