French government barrels toward a brick wall

In France, political push came to shove on Monday, as Prime Minister Michel Barnier moved to ram a controversial pensions finance reform bill through the Assemblée Nationale, France’s lower (but more powerful) house of parliament. To do this, he relied on Article 49.3, a constitutional provision that allows a prime minister to advance legislation without a vote in parliament.

To stop this bill from becoming law, lawmakers must call and pass a vote of no-confidence in government and, given the unpopularity of both Barnier and the bill with populist critics on both the left and right, that’s what next for France’s latest political meltdown. Facing near-universal condemnation from the left, Barnier has been relying on support from the right-wing populists of the Rassemblement Nationale. The party’s true leader, Marine Le Pen, made her party’s intention clear with a post on social media that accused Barnier of failing to listen to the 11 million voters who backed her party at the last election.

Expect Barnier’s government to collapse on Wednesday. It’s unclear how many weeks or months it will take to form the next French government and to produce a budget that can steady the nerves of investors who’ve become increasingly squeamish about France’s future.