What Assad’s fall means for Syria, the Middle East, Moscow and Washington

​Top rebel commander Abu Mohammed al-Golani greets the crowd at Ummayad Mosque in Damascus after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar Assad, on Dec. 8, 2024.
Top rebel commander Abu Mohammed al-Golani greets the crowd at Ummayad Mosque in Damascus after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted President Bashar Assad, on Dec. 8, 2024.
REUTERS/Mahmoud Hassano

Syria’s government has fallen, precipitating change across the region and beyond. How did things get here, and where could they go?

Syria under Assad

The Syrian civil war, sparked by the Arab Spring of 2011, began as protests against the dictatorship of Bashar Assad, who took over from his father after Hafez Assad died in 2000. Known as “the Butcher of Damascus,” Bashar Assad killed and imprisoned thousands of political opponents and minority populations withthe support of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. The conflict killed over500,000 Syrians and displaced half the country’s population of 26 million people, prompting a refugee exodus to neighboring Turkey as well as Europe, the USA, and Canada.

Over the weekend, Assad fled with his family and was granted asylum in Moscow.

New rebel leadership

In just two weeks, insurgents seized control of major Syrian cities including Aleppo, Homs, Hama, and the capital, Damascus, and officially toppled Assad’s regime on Saturday. The main rebel force, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, is led by Abu Mohammad al-Golani, a former al-Qaida militant whoin the last decade has transformed from radical jihadist to ostensible pragmatist. Skeptics question the authenticity of his change of heart, however, andHTS is still designated as a terrorist group by many countries, including the United States.

Regional impacts

Iran: The collapse of Assad’s regime deals a significant blow to Iran’s "Axis of Resistance,"severing a crucial conduit for arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon and diminishing Tehran's influence in the region. This leaves it more vulnerable to anydirect conflict with Israel.

Lebanon: US envoy Amos Hochstein believes the Syrian war’s outcomewill have a “massive impact” on Lebanon as it reduces Iran’s ability to send weapons to Hezbollah. Syria’s instability could also worsen Lebanon’s fragile economic state.

Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuattributed Assad’s fall to Israel’s “forceful action against Hezbollah and Iran.” Israel has nonethelessdeployed forces into the Golan Heights to protect its border andstruck military targets inside Syria to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of hostile forces including Hezbollah.

Turkey: Turkey has backed rebel forces throughout Syria’s 13-year war as part of its geopolitical rivalry with Iran, and the outcome is seen as a win for Turkish President RecepTayyip Erdogan. Celebrations have erupted among Syrians in Turkey over Assad’s fall, and it is estimated that up to 50% of refugees theremay choose to return.

Superpower Stressors

Russia: Since the war began, Vladimir Putin has provided political support, military aid, and direct military intervention. This loss weakens Russia’s strategic position in the Middle East, including jeopardizing control over its Syrian air base in Hmeimim and naval air base in Tartus.

Russia’s military commitments in Ukraine are also blamed forweakening Moscow’s ability to support Assad’s regime. Following his ouster, US President-elect Donald Trumpcalled on Moscow for “an immediate ceasefire” in Ukraine.

The United States: The US has 900 troops in eastern Syria fighting against the re-establishment of the Islamic State and will remain there “to ensure [the group’s] enduring defeat, to ensure the secure detention of ISIS fighters and the repatriation of displaced persons,"according to Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Daniel Shapiro. Under President Barack Obama, the US authorized thousands of airstrikes on Syria and Iraq starting in 2014 as part ofOperation Inherent Resolve, part of an international effort to destroy the Islamic State.

This time around, US President-elect Donald Trumpposted to Truth Social on Saturday that the US “SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO” with the conflict in Syria. But Washington doesn’t appear to be listening: On Sunday, the US launched dozens of precision airstrikes against ISIS camps and operatives based in Central Syria, according to US Central Command.

And at a press conference on Sunday, US President Joe Biden not only took credit for helping topple the Assad regime through its sanctions against Syria and support for Israel’s efforts against Hezbollah, but he said the US will support Syria's neighbors, ensure stability in eastern Syria, protect against the Islamic State, and engage in a UN-led process to transition from Assad to an independent, sovereign Syria with a new constitution.

However, Washington will also “remain vigilant,” Biden added, noting that while the rebel groups that took down Assad “are saying the right things now,” the US “will assess not just their words but their actions.”

More from GZERO Media

Stacked containers in American and Chinese national colors symbolize a trade war between the US and China.
IMAGO/Christian Ohde via Reuters Connect

China has retaliated against US President Donald Trump’s 10% tariffs with a range of strategic countermeasures, to take effect Feb. 10. Of greater interest are nontariff measures, including anti-monopoly investigations launched into Google and the placing of Calvin Klein’s parent company, PVH, on China’s “unreliable entities” list, limiting the brand’s operations there.

Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s nominee for Director of National Intelligence, testifies at a Senate Intelligence Committee confirmation hearing in Washington, DC, January 30, 2025. She is a controversial nominee due to her previous suggestions of support for autocrats and U.S. adversaries, including the recently toppled Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.
(Photo by Allison Bailey/NurPhoto)
Bill Dally, Yann LeCun, and Yoshua Bengio, QEPrize, The Mall, London.
QEPrize/Jason Alden

On Tuesday, seven AI pioneers took home the 2025 Queen Elizabeth Prize for Engineering, a top award for groundbreaking innovations in science and engineering. They include Yoshua Bengio, Geoffrey Hinton, John Hopfield, Yann LeCun, Jensen Huang, Bill Dally, and Fei-Fei Li.

- YouTube

What does Putin mean when he says Europe "will stand at the feet of the master"? What's next for Panama after deciding to exit China's Belt and Road Initiative? How would a potential Turkey defense pact with Syria reshape power dynamics in the Middle East? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Walmart is fueling American jobs and strengthening communities by investing in local businesses. Athletic Brewing landed a deal with Walmart in 2021. Since then, co-founders Bill Shufelt and John Walker have hired more than 200 employees and built a150,000-square-foot brewery in Milford, CT. Athletic Brewing is one of many US-based suppliers working with Walmart. By 2030, the retailer is estimated to support the creation of over 750,000 US jobs by investing an additional $350 billion in products made, grown, or assembled in America. Learn more about Walmart’s commitment to US manufacturing.

In this new episode of Tools and Weapons, Microsoft's Vice Chair and President Brad Smith and Dr. Fei-Fei Li reflect on poignant moments from her memoir, "The Worlds I See: Curiosity, Exploration, and Discovery at the Dawn of AI," highlighting the crucial role of keeping humanity at the center of AI development. They also explore how government-funded academic research, driven by curiosity rather than profits, can lead to unexpected and profound discoveries that propel innovation and economic opportunities. Dr. Li is a pioneering AI scientist breaking new ground in computer vision, and she is a Stanford professor who is currently leading the innovative start-up World Labs. While her career is deeply rooted in technical expertise, Dr. Li's journey is driven by an insatiable curiosity. Subscribe and find new episodes monthly, wherever you listen to podcasts.

Syria's newly appointed President for a transitional phase Ahmed al-Sharaa meets with Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, Turkey, February 4, 2025.
Murat Cetinmuhurdar/PPO/Handout

Ankara is first outside player to fill the power vacuum left by the collapse of the Assad regime last December.