Georgia’s vote: A contest between Russia and the West

The former Soviet republic of Georgia is holding crucial parliamentary elections on Saturday that many view as a choice between drifting back into Russia’s orbit or embracing a European future. The stakes are massive: Georgia’s aspirations of joining the EU hang in the balance.

In the past year, the ruling Georgian Dream party, which is vying to retain power, sparked mass protests by passing a controversial “foreign agent” law that opponents say is identical to Russian legislation used to squash dissent. The law was decried in the West and saw the EU halt Georgia’s accession.

Meanwhile, Georgian Dream insists the country is still on track to join the EU, as critics accuse the party of pushing Georgia in an increasingly anti-Western, authoritarian direction.

The party, meanwhile, accuses opponents of trying to push Georgia into Ukraine’s war with Russia, which invaded Georgia in 2008 and still occupies 20% of its territory. It has also pledged to ban opposition parties if it wins on Saturday — a move that would greatly undermine democracy in Georgia and the country’s EU ambitions even though 80% of Georgians support joining the bloc.

The mood in Georgia is tense, and there are concerns that the Georgian Dream is using tactics such as voter intimidation to gain an unfair advantage. Polls indicate that it will win the most votes, but that four coalitions made up of opposition parties could collectively gain more support. If Georgian Dream doesn’t win a decisive victory and the opposition is unable to band together, then the ruling party could form a coalition government.

Whatever the outcome, Georgia is expected to face a period of instability as it moves to get back on track with the EU or takes even more major steps away from the West.

Click here for more insights from Tinatin Japaridze, a Georgian-born regional analyst at Eurasia Group.