Global economy brightens, and US inflation eases, but costs remain high

It's time for a mid-year economic checkup! According to the World Bank, the global economy has improved since the start of the year. Growth increased by 2.6%, and average inflation is at a three-year low – bringing us closer to the “soft landing” economists have aimed for since the end of the COVID-19 shutdown. And experts say we have the strength of the US economy to thank.

This may come as news to Americans irked by high prices at home, but US inflation fell 3.3% in May, leading traders in the futures market to raise their bets on a September rate cut to 84% and causing the S&P 500 to jump 1.3%.

The news also has Joe Biden jumping … for joy. Polls show that the economy is one of – if not the biggest – issues in the 2024 election, and he has lagged behind Donald Trump in polls.

While rates could begin to fall in September, central bankers warn the risk of further inflation remains high, so they are unlikely to reverse the last two years of rate hikes quickly.

But even if interest rates or prices fall, the cost of big-ticket items like housing, healthcare, childcare, and higher education have been climbing unabated for years, trapping the US economy in a much harder-to-solve affordability crisis and keeping voters pessimistic about the economy.