Hard Numbers: A bold Russia prediction, China’s new FM goes to Africa, Bosnian Serbs buck a ban, Nigerians train station abductions, Biden's files

46: A new Atlantic Council report says 46% of Russia hands think the country will be a “failed state” within the next decade. Could be, but it’s worth noting that experts have predicted at least 15 of the last 0 collapses of Vladimir Putin’s regime so far. So read this with interest, but a side of salt.

5: In his first trip to Africa since becoming China’s new foreign minister, Qin Gang will visit five countries on the continent this week: Ethiopia, Gabon, Angola, Benin, and Egypt. As China and the US increasingly eye opportunities in Africa, check out our recent Q&A with Eurasia Group Africa Director Amaka Anku, who says Washington is saying the wrong things and falling behind.

31: A parade of Bosnian Serb troops and police flouted a court ban in order to mark the 31st anniversary of their autonomous republic’s statehood over the weekend. Tensions have recently been rising between Bosnian Serbs, Bosniaks, and Croats in the country.

32: Unknown gunmen abducted at least 32 people in a southern Nigerian train station over the weekend. So far no group has claimed responsibility, but ahead of upcoming elections in February, the government’s inability to maintain basic security across the country is a major issue for voters.

10: That's how many classified documents were found at US President Joe Biden's former office at the Penn Biden Center, a Washington, DC-based think tank. The files — reportedly from Biden’s time as VP — have been handed over to the National Archives and the Justice Department is reviewing the case at the same time former President Donald Trump is under investigation for allegedly refusing to return some 300 classified documents that Trump took with him to his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.