49.3: FiveThirtyEight launched its national polling averages for the 2024 Republican presidential race this week, and Donald Trump leads the pack with 49.3% support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trails well behind with 26.2%, while fmr. VP Mike Pence and fmr. UN ambassador Nikki Haley are at 5.8% and 4.3%, respectively. Research finds that national polls done a year ahead of the election can reasonably predict the nominee.
2: NPR will stop posting on Twitter, becoming the first major outlet to ditch the bluebird since the platform began labeling news orgs that receive government funding as “state-affiliated media.” That designation is normally applied to outlets in autocratic countries that allow no editorial independence. Twitter CEO Elon Musk recently told the BBC (another “state-affiliated” media outlet) that he may change the label to “publicly funded.” PBS followed NPR's lead on Wednesday, so two major US media outlets have now said "bye-bye birdie."
88,000: The US, Panama, and Colombia are launching a two-month campaign to stem the northward flow of migrants across the perilous Darien Gap, which spans the Colombian-Panamanian border. Since January, more than 88,000 people have braved the crossing, over six times the number from the same period last year.
1: Did the Sports Almanac account for this? A recent study analyzing the past six decades of baseball and temperature data finds that thinner air from global warming accounted for 1% of home runs from 2010-2019. The number is expected to jump to 10% by 2100 – though the data is inconclusive on whether this can help the Mets.
In this episode of "ask ian," Ian Bremmer looks at what the rise of Elon Musk as the world’s first trillionaire reveals about wealth, innovation, and the future of the American Dream.
There are 48 countries involved in this year’s World Cup, but that only tells part of the story of just how global the “global game” has become.
In his latest Quick Take, Ian Bremmer says the US and Iran’s memorandum of understanding to end the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz marks progress, but warns it falls far short of resolving the broader conflict.
The United States and Iran said Sunday that they had reached an interim agreement that could end the months-long war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Officials are expected to sign the deal in Switzerland on Friday, following the G7 summit in France.