Harris vs. Trump remains too close to call

​FILE PHOTO: U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S. August 20, 2024 and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Bedminster, New Jersey, U.S., August 15, 2024 are seen in a combination of file photographs.
FILE PHOTO: U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S. August 20, 2024 and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Bedminster, New Jersey, U.S., August 15, 2024 are seen in a combination of file photographs.
REUTERS/Marco Bello, Jeenah Moon/File Photo

Less than six weeks from Election Day, current polls suggest a razor-thin margin in the race for the White House. Aggregations of national polls (see examples here, here, and here) show a lead for Vice President Kamala Harris of 2-3 points. That’s small comfort for her campaign since most of the polling results that make up these aggregations are within their margins of error, and because national polls offer an imperfect estimate of the electoral college outcome. Harris knows that George W. Bush (2000) and her opponent, Donald Trump (2016), both won elections despite losing the popular vote.

That’s why both campaigns and most major polling firms are focused on the seven states that will decide the winner: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. Neither candidate needs all these states to win, but the latest polls show tiny advantages for Harris in the first four states and minuscule leads for Trump in the others.

If the margins remain this close, the election will be decided by “undecided” voters. It’s important to remember that in most cases, these voters are undecided between the candidate they prefer and the choice not to vote, rather than being torn between the two candidates.

More from GZERO Media

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in the Cabinet Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 17, 2025.

REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

A federal judge set up a showdown with the Trump administration on Wednesday with a ruling that threatens to find the government in contempt if it fails to comply with a judicial order to provide due process to Venezuelans deported to a prison in El Salvador.

Gavin Newsom speaks at the Vogue World: Hollywood Announcement at the Chateau Marmont in West Hollywood, CA on March 26, 2025.
Photo by Corine Solberg/Sipa USA

California governor Gavin Newsom kicked off a campaign to promote Canadian tourism in his state, pitching its sunny beaches, lush vineyards, and world-class restaurants.

An employee checks filled capsules inside a Cadila Pharmaceutical company manufacturing unit at Dholka town on the outskirts of Ahmedabad, India, April 12, 2025.
REUTERS/Amit Dave

Donald Trump’s administration announced that it is opening investigations into pharmaceutical and semiconductor supply chains, which will likely result in tariffs that will hurt suppliers in Europe, India, and Canada.

Anderson Clayton, chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party speaks after Democrat Josh Stein won the North Carolina governor's race, in Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S., November 5, 2024.
REUTERS/Jonathan Drake

As the Democrats start plotting their fight back into power in the 2026 midterms, one issue has come up again and again.

People gather after Friday prayers during a protest in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, in Amman, Jordan, on April 4, 2025.
REUTERS/Jehad Shelbak

Jordanian authorities announced on Wednesday the arrest of 16 people accused of planning terrorist attacks inside Jordan. The country’s security services say the suspects had been under surveillance since 2021, and half a dozen of them were reportedly members of the Muslim Brotherhood, a transnational Islamist organization.