The US on Wednesday confirmed that North Korea has troops in Russia. Though the nature of their mission is unclear, this marks a significant escalation that could see the Korean peninsula get involved in the war in Ukraine.
This comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned recently that North Korean troops could soon join Russian forces in the war against Ukraine. Seoul says roughly 3,000 North Korean troops are already in Russia with several thousand more promised to arrive.
Still, experts believe North Korean troops will have a limited impact on the ground.
“The number of troops is small relative to the numbers Russia has committed to the invasion,” says Alex Brideau, a Russia expert at Eurasia Group. While “an influx of new troops helps Russia maintain its offensive operations,” it’s unclear how many there will be or how they’ll be deployed.
But South Korea is not amused. It has warned Moscow it could begin supplying weapons to Kyiv — a step it’s avoided so far due to a policy against sending arms to countries actively involved in conflicts — as the Kremlin deepens ties with Pyongyang.
“South Korea is constrained both legally and politically from providing weapons directly to Ukraine — as it has threatened to do since the Putin-Kim summit in June — but could provide them indirectly through the US and Eastern European countries,” says Jeremy Chan, a Korea expert at Eurasia Group.
Seoul has also been reluctant to negatively impact long-term relations with Moscow, says Chan. But if it proceeds, he says, it has “world-class weaponry that could meaningfully change Ukraine’s defensive and offensive capabilities.”
“South Korea’s top concern remains what support Russia is providing North Korea in return for the troops,” says Chan. “Technological assistance to Pyongyang’s ballistic and nuclear weapons capabilities remain the redline for South Korea, although there has not been any public confirmation of these transfers yet.”