India

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses a public meeting for the Lok Sabha elections, in Chandrapur on Monday.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses a public meeting for the Lok Sabha elections, in Chandrapur on Monday.
BJP via Reuters Connect
In the world’s largest Democracy, all signs are that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling Hindu nationalist party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, will secure a clear majority in general elections this summer, a win that will ensure a comfortable third term for Modi.

Despite a Supreme Court ruling limiting anonymous campaign donations – a ruling that will affect future campaigns – Modi’s BJP party is leading in fundraising and the polls. Modi’s popularity remains strong due to his strong-man image and commitment to India rising in global prominence.

But he is not without enemies. Around 10,000 farmers have been protesting Modi’s policies, and they form a powerful voting bloc that the BJP will have to appease before polls open.

Last year, more than two dozen regional parties came together in an attempt to take down the BJP, but ideological differences and personality clashes are causing the opposition coalition to crack during these crucial months ahead of the election.

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Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: This wave of Israel-Hezbollah attacks is disentangled from Iran, and we saw that the Israelis, of course, were able to assassinate the political leader of Hamas, Haniyeh, who was in Tehran on the occasion of the inauguration of the new Iranian president, deeply embarrassing for the Iranians. It's been a month, and there's been no Iranian retaliation despite the fact that the Supreme leader and others in the Iranian government structure had said that major strikes were coming within hours; that's not the case. Iran is waiting for a window of opportunity to avoid dramatically escalating the feud into a region-wide war, same as Hezbollah.