India hopes Trump will lean its way

The US election of Donald Trump may have troubling implications for Canada’s hostile relationship with India since the Canadians appear to have been relying on Washington to manage the situation.

Last month, the Trudeau government expelled Indian diplomats after revealing allegations of assassination plots that Canadian officials linked to the highest levels of the Indian government. India denies the allegations and complains bitterly about a lack of security cooperation in dealing with what it sees as threats from Canadian Sikhs who are seeking an independent homeland in India.

On Wednesday, Canadian police confirmed that last month they arrested a man India calls a terrorist on gun charges.

The hostility between Canadian Sikhs and Hindus turned violent in the suburban Toronto community of Brampton earlier this month, leading to an angry denunciation from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India is now hoping Modi’s friend Trump will put Trudeau in his place and resolve the impasse in India’s favor.

But there is an active US prosecution of an Indian intelligence official over a plot to kill Sikh activists in both Canada and the United States. Trump is unlikely to turn a blind eye to that, says Jamie Tronnes, executive director of the Center for North American Prosperity and Security.

“Anyone who is looking for a foothold to do foreign interference that involves violence on citizens of a country on that country’s soil should be deterred strongly by the United States, particularly under Trump,” she says. “He is strong on national security, and he is not going to tolerate murder-for-hire plots on American soil.”

On the other hand, Trump tends to be motivated by transactional concerns, and India has a lot of leverage in the global chess match between China and the United States.