Iran nuclear deal 2.0, or war?

Iran Nuclear Deal 2.0? | GZERO World

Since taking office, the Biden administration has worked hard for the US to return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which Donald Trump walked away from in 2018.

Now, reaching an agreement is more urgent than ever because the Iranians are closer to getting the bomb than they've ever been. But Russia's war in Ukraine has complicated things, and some fear that even if a deal happens, the US may withdraw again with a Republican president in 2025.

On this episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks to Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, who says the odds of success in the short term are about 50/50. Still, he thinks the stakes have become too big to fail for both Iran, crippled by sanctions, and for the US — Biden will pay a political price if the Iranians go nuclear on his watch.

Vaez also digs into Israel's strategic interest in a deal the Israelis have long opposed, and Russia's role in the negotiations with Iran.

More on the war in Ukraine: can cold-calling ordinary Russians to talk about the invasion change their hearts and minds? We talk to an Ireland-based Ukrainian in charge of a project doing just that.

More from GZERO Media

Malawi soldiers part of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) military mission for eastern Congo, wait for the ceremony to repatriate the two bodies of South African soldiers killed in the ongoing war between M23 rebels and the Congolese army in Goma, North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo February 20, 2024.
REUTERS/Arlette Bashizi

Fighters from the M23 rebel group in northeastern Congo have been targeting civilians in violation of a July ceasefire agreement, according to the Southern African Development Community, whose peacekeeping mandate was extended by a year on Wednesday.

Ari Winkleman

Donald Trump has promised a laundry list of things he will accomplish “on Day 1” in office. To name a few, he has vowed to immediately begin a mass deportation of immigrants, streamline the federal government, pardon Jan. 6 rioters, and roll back the Biden administration’s education and climate policies.

Ambassador Robert Wood of the US raises his hand to vote against the ceasefire resolution at the United Nations Security Council, on November 20, 2024.
Lev Radin/Sipa USA, via Reuters
- YouTube

Ukraine has launched US-made long-range missiles into Russia for the first time. Will this change the course of the war? How likely will Trump be able to carry out mass deportations when he's in office? Will there be political fallout from Hong Kong's decision to jail pro-democracy activists? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

A man rushes past members of security forces during clashes between gangs and security forces, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti November 11, 2024.
REUTERS/Marckinson Pierre

The UN Humanitarian Air Service is scheduled to restart flights to Haiti on Wednesday, a week after several planes attempting to land at Port-au-Prince airport came under small arms fire.