Iran nuclear deal now a toss-up, says International Crisis Group expert

So, is the Iran nuclear deal 2.0 finally happening, or not?

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, says he stopped making predictions months ago. Still, he puts the odds now at 50/50.

Failure is not an option for the Iranians, Vaez tells Ian Bremmer in a GZERO World interview, because they've survived crippling US economic sanctions but will never thrive under them. Also, if the crisis escalated, additional UN sanctions will snap back.

The Iran nuclear deal has also become too big to fail for the Americans, he says. Why? Iran is closer to the verge of acquiring nukes than it's been in 20 years.Vaez explains that Iran's breakout time — how long it'll take the Iranians to enrich enough uranium for a single nuclear weapon — is now less than two weeks. It was more than 12 months when former US President Donald Trump took office.

Biden, he thinks, could pay a political price for restoring the agreement in the November midterm elections — but allowing Iran to become a nuclear-armed state on his watch could hurt the president even more.