Low voter turnout was expected, and many believed Pezeshkianwould come in first but fail to win the 50% majority needed to prevail outright. Experts like Eurasia Group analyst Gregory Brew anticipated that Pezeshkian would then meet either Jalili or Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf in a runoff.
“Events bore out this expectation,” says Brew, “but with a few interesting twists.” First, voter turnout was even lower than feared – at just 40%. Second, Jalili and Qalibaf combined only won 13 million votes, far less than the 19 million Raisi had in 2021.
Round two looms. If Jalili wins in the second round on July 5, he would simply be another ideological hardliner hostile to the West with “retrograde views on important social issues.” This, says Brew, will ensure “dissatisfaction with the regime increases among ordinary Iranians.”
Pezeshkian would be weak and be easy for the regime to undermine, Brew explains, but “the Supreme Leader has always distrusted and feared the reformists and it’s hard to see him tolerating a reformist president, especially with a succession so close.”
In fact, neither candidate is ideal for the regime’s leadership. “While Jalili is ideologically suitable,” says Brew, “he doesn't appear to have much support from inside the regime.”
Still, one of them will prevail. “I'd say that the odds favor Jalili right now, especially as turnout is going to be even lower next week than it was for Friday's election,” says Brew, noting that if voters do align with Pezeshkian, it would just be to prevent a Jalili government.
More than half of Americans believe their job is vulnerable to AI. The data tells a more complicated and in some ways more hopeful story.
Artificial intelligence is already helping humanitarian organizations identify people in need, improve supply chains, and deliver assistance more efficiently. But it also introduces new risks.
AI is spreading faster, and the gap is growing wider. What that means in practice isn’t straightforward. In the first edition of AIEI Perspectives, a new editorial series from the Microsoft AI Economy Institute, six experts answer the same questions about who benefits from AI, who’s still waiting, and what shapes that outcome. Their answers don’t all land in the same place. Instead, they offer different ways of interpreting the same challenge — highlighting where views align and diverge and what it may take to close the gap over time. Read the perspectives here.
Competitive pay. 401(k) contributions upon employment and 6% company match once eligible. Up to 16 weeks of combined paid maternity and parental leave. These benefits and more inspire generations – Daidrian’s 18-year Walmart journey motivated her son Jonothan to launch his own career as a Walmart associate. Learn more.