Iran’s leaders are asking for trouble

Matchboxes with the Iran flag
Luisa Vieira

It’s impossible to predict when and where a wildfire will begin, but it’s easy to know when the ground is dry. In today’s Iran, the ground is ominously dry.

On the surface, social tensions have subsided since the height of nationwide protests over last autumn’s death in police custody of Mahsa Amini, who had been arrested for violating rules governing the hijab, or headscarf, which Iranian women are required to wear in public. A combination of mass arrests and executions, some of them public, have moved most protesters off the streets in recent weeks.

But Iran’s conservative government now sees that it’s much easier to use tried-and-true methods to beat back demonstrators than to force all women and girls to wear the hijab in public. After all, many are simply ignoring the rules.

So, authorities have authored a new law and are using new tactics. Women who flout the state’s dress code can be kept out of school and denied services. Businesses that welcome them can be fined or shut down. Last month, cameras were installed in many city streets to boost enforcement. The next ugly confrontation ending in violence and public fury is all but inevitable.

Public frustration in Iran extends well beyond a repressive dress code. Adding fuel to the Mahsa Amini protests is an economy in terrible shape, thanks in part to Western sanctions and partly to Iran’s own policy incompetence. Inflation is probably still running well above 40%, though Iran’s government stopped publishing inflation stats two months ago. Iran’s currency is now at a record low against the dollar. The unemployment rate tops 10%. A return to the nuclear deal could slowly lift US and European sanctions, but Iran’s willingness to supply Russia’s military with drones used to attack Ukraine signals its government’s determination to reject Western terms.

If you live in Iran, it’s natural to wonder whether change is even possible. The economy has limped along for decades. The cycle of protest and repression continues. The choices available to Iran’s voters narrow further at each election.

Yet, with each passing year, the percentage of Iranians old enough to remember the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the forces that inspired it grows smaller. And each passing year brings Iran closer to the day when current Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, an 84-year-old cancer survivor sometimes rumored to be in poor health, will die. Only once has supreme power passed from one set of hands to another in the Islamic Republic’s history – and that was 34 years ago. Everyone with access to power and wealth within the regime must wonder what succession means for their futures and their families, and they must live with uncertainty.

With all these anxieties in mind, further disruption appears unavoidable.Open defiance will again meet determined repression. The Islamic Republic’s elite don’t want to back down on headscarves, and they fear, perhaps rightly, that concessions in one area would only ignite public demand for more. But the ground in Iran is dry, and the striking of matches there should have the world’s attention.

More from GZERO Media

People protest against Ljubljana's Mayor Zoran Jankovic's support of Serbia's President Aleksandar Vucic, near the Serbian embassy in Ljubljana, Slovenia, March 5, 2025.
REUTERS/Borut Zivulovic

After months of historic protests, Serbia’s embattled president, Aleksandar Vučić, is now up against something particularly formidable: the clock.

  • A general view outside Exchange Square in Hong Kong's financial district. Asian stock markets have plummeted amid growing fears of a global trade war, as Donald Trump described his tariffs as ''medicine'' and showed no indication of backing down.
ZUMA Press Wire via Reuters Connect

In the latest twist of the United States’ trade war with China and the world, US President Donald Trump declared Monday that he would impose an additional 50% levy on Chinese imports on April 9 if Beijing refuses to drop its retaliatory tariff.

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends a press briefing in Tehran, Iran, January 8, 2025.
Iraqi Prime Minister Media Office/Handout via REUTERS

In response to warnings from US officials of looming air attacks by US forces, the leaders of four of the largest Iran-backed militia groups operating in Iraq told Reuters on Monday that they were prepared to surrender their weapons to Iraqi government authorities.

Demonstrators rally against President Donald Trump and his adviser Elon Musk during a Hands Off! protest on the Washington Monument grounds in Washington, DC, on April 5, 2025.
REUTERS/Tierney L Cross

US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs have been met with anger, outrage, and disbelief in every corner of the world – including islands inhabited solely by penguins. At last count, over 50 countries want to talk trade with Washington, while in the US, opposition to Trump’s presidency is getting organized. Here’s a look at this weekend’s reactions.

President Donald Trump welcomes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the entrance of the White House in Washington, on Feb. 4, 2025.
REUTERS/Leah Millis

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with US President Donald Trump at the White House on Monday. It will be his second such visit since Trump’s inauguration in January, and it comes after the president’s impromptu invitation last Thursday, when the two men spoke by phone about new US tariffs. They are expected to discuss those – and a whole lot more.

Marine Le Pen spoke at a support rally organized in Paris on Sunday.
Gabriel Pacheco/Hans Lucas via Reuters Connect

Thousands of supporters of France’s far right gathered at Place Vauban in Paris on Sunday to support Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally party. The three-time presidential candidate was recently convicted of embezzling European Union funds to pay staff, resulting in a five-year ban on holding public office, effectively barring her from France’s 2027 presidential election.