Home Living Beyond Borders GZERO World Signal In 60 Seconds Puppet Regime GZERO World Podcast Contact Us About Us Careers Privacy Policy Terms

Is Harris now the favorite?

August 07, 2024

Willis Sparks

U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris waves to the crowd during a campaign event in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, U.S., August 7, 2024.

REUTERS/Erica Dischino

In the days before President Joe Biden withdrew from November’s presidential election, Republican nominee Donald Trump was widely considered the favorite to win. But with the entrance of Vice President Kamala Harris into the race, most analysts now consider the race a toss-up. For now, Harris has the momentum in many polls. What would it take for her to be considered the favorite?

By some measures, Harris already has a slight advantage. Election analyst Nate Silver’s model, an aggregator of other respected polls, currently has Harris leading Trump nationally by 45.8% to 43.7%. She also holds (very) narrow leads in swing states Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, while Trump leads by equally thin margins in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. Other analysts and prediction sites show similar results.

For Harris to become the favorite, she’ll need a lead of three points or more nationally over a couple of weeks, because the electoral college probably provides Trump the same advantage he enjoyed in 2016 and George W. Bush held in 2000. In both those cases, the Republican won the election despite losing the national popular vote.

But Harris must also post 2-3% polling margins in either Pennsylvania or Georgia, perhaps the two most evenly split states in the country. That result would signal Harris is likely to earn the 270 electoral votes she needs to win the White House.

GZEROMEDIA

Can the IMF change to help more women?

Matthew Kendrick

When a country hits rock bottom financially, the International Monetary Fund is meant to step in with funds to stabilize the economy without damaging its society — or the gender gap. But studies show that these programs often push women out of work at a disproportionate rate to men as the economy contracts. Matthew Kendrick reports from the World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings on a push to build more equitable programs.

North Korean troops move into Russia’s border area with Ukraine

Russia's President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un attend a farewell ceremony before Putin's departure at an airport in Pyongyang, North Korea June 19, 2024.

Gavriil Grigorov/Reuters

Kyiv says that roughly 12,000 North Korean troops are in Russia, a far greater number than reported by the US, though it remains unclear precisely how many have entered what Ukraine referred to as the “combat zone.”

GZEROMEDIA

Will Japan’s LDP lose its grip on power?

October 23, 2024, Kamagaya, Japan - Japanese Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Shigeru Ishiba reacts to his supporters after he delivered a campaign speech for his party candidate Hisashi Matsumoto for the general election at Kamagaya in Chiba prefecture, suburban Tokyo on Wednesday, October 23, 2024.

(photo by Yoshio Tsunoda/AFLO)

As Japan heads to the polls this Sunday, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to call an early election just weeks after taking office is turning out to be a high-stakes gamble.

Global economy at risk if Middle East conflict expands, says World Bank's Ayhan Kose

- YouTube

youtu.be

While the global economy shows signs of growth and decreasing inflation, the near future involves risks, including the escalation in the Middle East impacting oil prices, strained China-US relations, and an increasingly challenging tariff and trade environment, said Ayhan Kose, World Bank Deputy Chief Economist. He discussed the geopolitical tensions influencing the global economy with GZERO's Tony Maciulis at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, DC, in a GZERO Global Stage interview.

About Us Careers Press Contact Us Privacy Policy Terms of Use

Is Harris now the favorite?

GZEROMEDIA

More from GZERO Media

Can we achieve gender equality by 2030?

This week World Bank announced a bold initiative to bridge the gender divide by creating more economic opportunity, broadening female leadership, and reducing gender-based violence in the next 5 years as 2030 approaches.

Can the IMF change to help more women?

Opinion: Colors, Ta-Nehisi Coates, and the use of your eyes

There are times when we need more context, and there are times when we do not. How do we tell the difference?

Hard Numbers: Turkey retaliates for terror bombing, Boeing workers reject deal, Biden to issue historic apology, Brand new prime number, Los Angeles DA recommends resentencing for Menendez brothers

North Korean troops move into Russia’s border area with Ukraine

Kyiv says that roughly 12,000 North Korean troops are in Russia, a far greater number than reported by the US, though it remains unclear precisely how many have entered what Ukraine referred to as the “combat zone.”

GZEROMEDIA

Georgia’s vote: A contest between Russia and the West

Georgian Dream insists the country is still on track to join the EU, as critics accuse the party of pushing Georgia in an increasingly anti-Western, authoritarian direction.

Graphic Truth: BRICS economies eclipse the G7

In 2001, a Goldman Sachs economist coined an acronym for the four largest and most promising “emerging market” economies: Brazil, Russia, India, and China became known as the “BRIC” countries.

Texas showdown: Trump and Harris target the different sides of gender divide

With the latest polls still showing Donald Trump and Kamala Harris neck and neck in the swing states, both candidates are heading to Texas, a far less competitive state, with hopes of reaching key voter groups nationwide.

Will Japan’s LDP lose its grip on power?

As Japan heads to the polls this Sunday, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to call an early election just weeks after taking office is turning out to be a high-stakes gamble.

Global economy at risk if Middle East conflict expands, says World Bank's Ayhan Kose

Is Harris now the favorite?

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal

More from GZERO Media

This week World Bank announced a bold initiative to bridge the gender divide by creating more economic opportunity, broadening female leadership, and reducing gender-based violence in the next 5 years as 2030 approaches.

There are times when we need more context, and there are times when we do not. How do we tell the difference?

Kyiv says that roughly 12,000 North Korean troops are in Russia, a far greater number than reported by the US, though it remains unclear precisely how many have entered what Ukraine referred to as the “combat zone.”

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal

Georgian Dream insists the country is still on track to join the EU, as critics accuse the party of pushing Georgia in an increasingly anti-Western, authoritarian direction.

In 2001, a Goldman Sachs economist coined an acronym for the four largest and most promising “emerging market” economies: Brazil, Russia, India, and China became known as the “BRIC” countries.

With the latest polls still showing Donald Trump and Kamala Harris neck and neck in the swing states, both candidates are heading to Texas, a far less competitive state, with hopes of reaching key voter groups nationwide.

As Japan heads to the polls this Sunday, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to call an early election just weeks after taking office is turning out to be a high-stakes gamble.