GZERO North

Lake’s primary win sets stage for crucial Arizona showdown

Arizona Republican Senate nominee Kari Lake gestures to the crowd gathered for vice presidential nominee JD Vance at Arizona Christian University on July 31, 2024.
Arizona Republican Senate nominee Kari Lake gestures to the crowd gathered for vice presidential nominee JD Vance at Arizona Christian University on July 31, 2024.
Reuters

MAGA favorite Kari Lakewon the Arizona Republican primary Tuesday to run against Democrat Ruben Gallego for a US Senate seat in a race that could decide which party controls the upper chamber.

Lake, who hailed Donald Trump as a “hero” in her acceptance speech, is allied with the former president. In 2022, she lost a close race for the governorship of the state. Her margin of victory in this week’s primary against an underfunded and unknown opponent — just 55% — suggests she may struggle to unify her party, according to the Arizona Republic.

Public polls show that Arizona, a crucial swing state in the presidential race, is a toss-up between Kamala Harris and Trump. Sen. Mark Kelly, a former astronaut, is on the short list of five potential vice-presidential candidates Harris is considering. His selection would give her candidacy a boost in the presidential race in Arizona, but it would also create a Senate vacancy that might be vulnerable to a Republican challenge.

Harris is expected to announce her pick before she begins a series of swing-state rallies on Tuesday. Her decision will be closely scrutinized for what it signals about her strategic approach to the 3D chessboard of the electoral map, but the decision could just as easily hinge on personal rapport and the candidate’s capacity to act as an effective surrogate.

Lake, meanwhile, may need Trump’s support to do well enough to beat Gallego. Polls show he has a slight edge, but it will be a close race, which means whoever has the turnout advantage at the top the ticket may carry other candidates over the finish line.

More For You

US President Donald Trump participates in an arrival ceremony at Beijing Capital International Airport during his visit to the country, in Beijing, China, on May 13, 2026.
REUTERS/Evan Vucci

Xi Jinping will welcome Donald Trump with lots of pomp and circumstance. The summit, though, will be short on substance.

- YouTube

Ian Bremmer breaks down the complicated reality inside Venezuela after Nicolás Maduro’s removal from power. While the Trump administration sees the operation as a major foreign policy victory, Ian argues the harder challenge is only beginning; turning Venezuela into a stable economy and a representative democracy.

Noam Bettan from Israel with the song "Michelle" are on stage at the 70th Eurovision Song Contest (ESC) during rehearsals for the first semi-final on May 12, 2026, in the Stadthalle.
Jens Büttner/dpa via Reuters Connect

Even Eurovision cannot escape geopolitics, South Africa’s constitutional court opens door to Ramaphosa impeachment vote, Zelensky’s former right-hand man accused in corruption probe