On Tuesday, Myanmar’s ruling junta officially launched a census aimed at creating election rolls for a promised vote next year, but the armed opposition tied to the former democratic government of Aung San Suu Kyi, known as the National Unity Government, is urging citizens to comply with caution. They allege the military is using the census to collect information on the whereabouts of potential political dissidents as well as create lists of men eligible for military conscription.
The survey seems virtually impossible to complete accurately. The junta set a deadline of Oct.15 for most of the country but says it will wait until December for areas with intense fighting. They’ve hired just 42,000 employees to process over 56 million people, usually going door-to-door, when over half the country is under the control of hostile militias. If the junta creates voter rolls without a reliable census, it would delegitimize the election but may allow the military to retain power with a veneer of popular mandate.
The junta is hoping to change the dynamic of the war, which has shifted against them over the last year. Ethnic militias have united to seize border areas crucial for trade, and urban rebel groups are bringing violence into the junta’s core areas. A day before the census began, two bombs in the commercial capital Yangon injured 11 people in administrative offices. A guerilla organization known as Mission K claimed responsibility and specifically said it was over the census. We are watching whether the survey attracts more violence.