Peronists stage surprise comeback in Argentina

Argentine Economy Minister Sergio Massa leads in Sunday's first-round elections.
Argentine Economy Minister Sergio Massa leads in Sunday's first-round elections.
ADRIANO MACHADO/Reuters

Argentina came closer to electing a new president on Sunday. In the first round of run-off elections, Peronist Economy Minister Sergio Massa defied expectations, clinching 36.7% of the vote to finish ahead of populist firebrand Javier Milei’s 30% and conservative candidate Patricia Bullrich’s 23.8%, with most ballots counted. The top two contenders will face off in a final round of voting on Nov. 19.

Pollsters had predicted the libertarian Milei would win on the first ballot, which required 45% of the vote or 40% with a 10% lead over the closest opponent. Massa’s Peronist party had taken much of the blame for the dismal state of Argentina's economy, where inflation has hit triple digits and two in five citizens live in poverty. Milei appealed to voters looking for change, preaching radical solutions like scrapping the peso, dollarizing the economy, abolishing the central bank, and cutting public spending by at least 15% of GDP.

But in the run-up to the vote, Massa rolled out some populist tactics of his own, granting welfare checks to workers, bonuses for retirees, and abolishing income taxes for 99% of the population. He also claimed that bus and train fares would rise sharply if he lost and emphasized the importance of Argentina's social safety net. Analysts say the institutional strength of the Peronist brand, as well as political polarization between left and right, helped explain Massa’s surprising comeback after his second-place finish to Milei in the August primary.

"It's amazing that the economy minister of an unpopular government with inflation accelerating to above 130% can be competitive," says Daniel Kerner, head of Eurasia Group's Latin America practice, noting that it "speaks to the strength of Peronism."

The eccentric Milei, meanwhile, cut a polarizing figure: The 53-year-old economist claims not to have brushed his hair since age 14, owns five cloned mastiffs, and wields a chainsaw at rallies. Massa and Bullrich criticized Milei for disparaging the country and advancing “bad and dangerous ideas,” perhaps influencing more voters to stick with the status quo than opt for the unknown.

After ballots were counted, Massa talked about “building a government of national unity,” “free education,” and promising “more order, and to build clear rules.”

Milei's Sunday night speech was described as “conciliatory.” “We can’t keep destroying ourselves with kircherismo," he says. "For everyone who wants change, we’ll need to work together.”

Financial analysts say Massa’s first-place showing rules out a sharp devaluation of the official exchange rate in the short term, though markets could still see turmoil. Between now and the Nov. 19 runoff, “we’re going to continue seeing high inflation and pressure on the exchange rate, but we’re not going to see a full-blown currency crisis and hyperinflation, that’s ruled out,” said Martin Rapetti, executive director of Buenos Aires-based consulting firm Equilibra.

But markets could still be in for a wild ride in November, should Milei pull off a win. The big question now is whether Milei can woo Bullrich's voters in the second round. "Most [of them] will vote for Milei," says Kerner, "but not all of them. Milei is too radical for some, and Massa will try to appeal to them," he adds, noting that he expects a very tight race to the finish.

More from GZERO Media

After voters elected her to the Wisconsin Supreme Court, liberal candidate Judge Susan Crawford celebrates with Wisconsin Supreme Court Judge Ann Walsh Bradley at her election night headquarters in Madison, Wisconsin, on April 1, 2025.

REUTERS/Vincent Alban

Republicans expanded their lean House majority after a pair of special elections in Florida, but a conservative candidate lost badly in a Wisconsin judicial race — despite a huge cash injection from Elon Musk.

- YouTube

If China, Japan, and South Korea formed a united front, what kind of leverage would they have in negotiating against US tariffs? I think they are heading in that trajectory. The question is, will it be enough to keep Syria stable and away from descending into civil war? Why does Trump want to take Greenland? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

President Donald Trump, seen here on the South Lawn of the White House in February, is set to unveil his "Liberation Day" tariffs.

REUTERS/Craig Hudson

T-Day has arrived. On Wednesday afternoon, Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs on US trade partners will take effect immediately after a Rose Garden announcement.

A giant screen in Beijing shows news footage about the People's Liberation Army (PLA) joint army, navy, air and rocket forces drills around Taiwan on April 1, 2025.
REUTERS/Florence Lo

Beijing conducted one of the largest and most provocative military drills ever around the island -- but why now?

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks during a briefing, Kyiv, Ukraine, on March 28, 2025.
Ukrinform/ABACA via Reuters Connect

Vladimir Putin insists that Volodymyr Zelensky is no longer Ukraine’s legitimate president because his government has imposed martial law and delayed elections that were due in 2024.

President Donald Trump speaks from the Oval Office flanked by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on the day he signed executive orders for reciprocal tariffs, Feb. 13, 2025.
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Details of a group chat between senior administration officials that leaked last week – the so-called Houthi PC small group – provide allies, adversaries, and watchers with revealing insights into the administration’s foreign policy blueprint. Lindsay Newman explores the takeaways.

Proud Source became a Walmart supplier in 2021. Today, its team has grown by 50%, and it's the largest employer in Mackay, ID. Walmart supports small businesses across the country, and nearly two-thirds of Walmart's product spend is on products made, grown, or assembled in America. It’s all a part of Walmart’s $350 billion investment in US manufacturing, which helps small businesses grow and supports US jobs. Learn more about Walmart’s commitment to US manufacturing.