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Polls tighten as Canadians head to the polls. Will Liberals pull off the ultimate comeback?

April 27, 2025
Tracy Moran
Canadians head to the polls for federal election.
Jess Frampton

It’s Election Day in Canada on Monday, and many are wondering whether newly installed Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney will complete a shocking comeback for the party of former PM Justin Trudeau.

The Liberals were skating deep in their own zone just a few months ago — down a whopping 25 points in the polls as recently as January — but Trudeau’s resignation and Donald Trump’s trade war and aggressive rhetoric sparked a surge in Canadian nationalism and flipped the momentum. Since the end of February, Carney’s Liberals have been on a power play, polling ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party — at one point stretching the lead to 15 points.

Over the long Easter weekend, Canadians broke advance voting records as 7.3 million turned up at the polls — a 25% jump from the 2021 election — and that early vote, according to David Coletto of Abacus Data, likely gave the Liberals a critical first-period lead.

While the Liberals hope to score a majority — a clear mandate to effect change and wrangle Donald Trump — the match isn’t over yet. The gap between the two teams, er, parties, has narrowed in recent weeks, with the Liberals polling slightly ahead at 42.9%, and the Conservatives at 39.3%. The ground game will be key: With the Liberals enjoying a more efficient distribution of support in key cities and regions – particularly Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada - the Conservatives need all their players on the ice if they hope to clinch a win.

Final-day campaigning was impacted by a deadly car-ramming attack in Vancouver late Saturday that killed 11 people. On Sunday, Carney, Poilievre, and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh expressed their condolences and outrage, and they rescheduled final events ahead of the polls opening on Monday.

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