Remittances We’re Watching: OFW superheroes, Central America flows, Ukraine war

Applicants looking at job offers displayed on a glass window of a recruitment agency in Manila, Philippines.
Applicants looking at job offers displayed on a glass window of a recruitment agency in Manila, Philippines.
Reuters

The Philippines: From remittances to migrant worker superpower?

Being an Overseas Filipino Worker is nothing to sneeze at. When OFWs, as they're popularly known, go home for Christmas carrying huge cardboard boxes of gifts, they have a dedicated customs line and huge billboards thanking them for doing such a good job. Why? Because the remittances they send make up almost 10% of GDP. What's more, the Philippine labor diaspora is among the world’s biggest at 10% of the population — and a prized voting bloc. That’s why President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. spent almost as much time visiting OFWs in the US and the Gulf as he did on the domestic campaign trail. It paid off: Marcos killed it with OFWs, who helped him last May win a plurality of the vote for the first time since his authoritarian dad was in charge. Now, Marcos Jr. wants OFWs to play an even bigger role in his administration. For one thing, he’s asking them to go beyond remittances and actually invest in crucial business sectors such as tourism. For another, Marcos thinks the Philippines can punch above its tiny diplomatic weight by leveraging the power of its huge expat workforce to achieve political goals like trade deals. If a pandemic-era deployment ban on Filipino nurses worsened a global shortage, imagine what would happen to the shipping industry if Manila called back a quarter of the world's seafarers.

How pandemic and inflation impacted remittances to Central America

Lockdowns in the US had a disruptive effect on many Latin American countries that rely on remittances from the US to keep their economies afloat. Border closures and a stagnant US economy in the first half of 2020 caused remittances to drop, with outflows to Mexico, Guatemala, and Honduras contracting (year on year) in April 2020 by 3%, 20%, and 28% respectively. That trend reversed course in the second half of 2020 as the US entered the “we have to learn to live with it” stage of the pandemic. Remittances strengthened further in 2021 as the US economy came roaring back. Surging demand coupled with the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package led to record levels of remittances to Latin American countries, where pandemic-related economic disruptions remained rampant. Remittances to Mexico grew 27%, while Guatemalan migrants sent 35% more back. Payments to Honduras and El Salvador, meanwhile, grew 26%. We’ll be watching to see whether these outflows recede as the US Federal Reserve doubles down on efforts to rein in soaring US inflation. What’s more, inflation in the receiving countries – the annual rate in August was at 8.7% in Mexico, 10.4% in Honduras, and 8.4% in Guatemala – means that whatever is sent home will be worth less.

Ukraine: War and remittances

The war in Ukraine has sent a shockwave through the normal patterns of remittance flows in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. To start with, consider that Ukraine counts on remittances for 10% of its GDP, most of that coming from Poland and the US. Russia, meanwhile, is home to millions of migrant workers from countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia, some of which depend on remittances for nearly a third of GDP. When the war started, remittances to Ukraine skyrocketed as Ukrainians living abroad sent money home to loved ones in danger and global platforms cut fees for money transfers. Since then, flows have tailed off, in part because millions of Ukrainians have fled, meaning transfers now reach them in other countries. At the same time, Western sanctions on Russia reverberated into Central Asia. First, the hit to Russia’s economy pushed hundreds of thousands of migrant workers to head home. Second, financial sanctions complicated Russian banks’ ability to send money across borders. In Kyrgyzstan alone, for example, remittances fell by 20% after the war started, and the World Bank has warned that the decline could push the poverty rate to 38% of the population, up from 20% in 2019.

More from GZERO Media

- YouTube

Fifty years after the fall of Saigon (or its liberation, depending on whom you ask), Vietnam has transformed from a war-torn battleground to one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies—and now finds itself caught between two superpowers. Ian Bremmer breaks down how Vietnam went from devastation in the wake of the Vietnam War to becoming a regional economic powerhouse.

Eurasia Group and GZERO Media are seeking a highly creative, detail-oriented Graphic and Animation Designer who lives and breathes news, international affairs, and policy. The ideal candidate has demonstrated experience using visual storytelling—including data visualizations and short-form animations—to make complex geopolitical topics accessible, social-friendly, and engaging across platforms. You will join a dynamic team of researchers, editors, video producers, and writers to elevate our storytelling and thought leadership through innovative multimedia content.

The body of Pope Francis in the coffin exposed in St. Peter's Basilica in Vatican City on April 24, 2025. The funeral will be celebrated on Saturday in St. Peter's Square.
Pasquale Gargano/KONTROLAB/ipa-agency.net/IPA/Sipa USA

While the Catholic world prepares for the funeral of Pope Francis on Saturday – the service begins at 10 a.m. local time, 4 a.m. ET – certain high-profile attendees may also have other things on their mind. Several world leaders will be on hand to pay their respects to the pontiff, but they could also find themselves involved in bilateral talks.

A Ukrainian rescue worker sits atop the rubble of a destroyed residential building during rescue operations, following a Russian missile strike on a residential apartment building block in Kyiv, Ukraine, on April 24, 2025.
Photo by Justin Yau/ Sipa USA
Members of the M23 rebel group stand guard at the opening ceremony of Caisse Generale d'epargne du Congo (CADECO) which will serve as the bank for the city of Goma where all banks have closed since the city was taken by the M23 rebels, in Goma, North Kivu province in the East of the Democratic Republic of Congo, April 7, 2025.
REUTERS/Arlette Bashizi

The Democratic Republic of the Congo and an alliance of militias led by the notorious M23 rebels announced a ceasefire on Thursday after talks in Qatar and, after three years of violence, said they would work toward a permanent truce.

Students shout slogans and burn an effigy to protest the Pahalgam terror attack in Guwahati, Assam, India, on April 24, 2025. On April 22, a devastating terrorist attack occurs in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, resulting in the deaths of at least 28 tourists.
Photo by David Talukdar/NurPhoto

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has blamed Pakistan for Tuesday’s deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir, and he’s takenaggressive action against its government.

- YouTube

“When things are going fine, nobody really tests the skills and talents of their financial advisor, but this is a moment where really good advice can be extraordinarily powerful,” says Margaret Franklin, CFA Institute's CEO and President. In conversation with GZERO’s Tony Maciulis, Franklin describes the current financial climate as “maximum uncertainty,” rating it a 10 out of 10 on the risk scale.

President Donald Trump at a bilateral meeting with China's President Xi Jinping during the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 29, 2019.
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo

On Wednesday, Donald Trump said he would deliver a “fair deal” with China and that he’d be “very nice” to the country after meeting with major retailers. But Beijing denies that there are any ongoing talks and has told the US it must cancel its unilateral tariffs before China will broker any negotiations.