Republicans reclaim Senate control, with a unified government in reach

As projected, Republicans have won back control of the Senate, largely thanks to Democrats vacating seats in the red states of Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia. The victory gives them the power over nominations of judges and heads of the federal bureaucracy, as well as the ability to control legislation – positioning them to be a boon to Donald Trump’s policy goals.

Their victory comes as the GOP’s longtime leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, 82, steps down. Republicans are expected to hold elections for new leadership next week.

If current trends hold, Republicans look set to flip five Senate seats in West Virginia, Ohio, Montana, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, which will give them a firm 54-seat majority in Congress. Democrats never had much hope of holding on to West Virginia or Montana, meaning they knew they would likely lose the chamber. But the Democrats’ underperformance in the swing states of Nevada and Pennsylvania means President-elect Donald Trump’s party will have a comfortable margin.

With six Senate races still to call, the size of the GOP’s majority will matter greatly, especially since Republicans like Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska regularly break party lines.

Interestingly, as of the time of writing, Democratic Senate candidates are leading in Arizona, and Wisconsin, and won in Michigan, all states that Trump won on the presidential level. If they all squeak out wins, and independent Sen. Angus King holds on to his seat in Maine, Democrats will have 46 seats — enough to filibuster comfortably and stymie some GOP legislation.

That becomes especially important if the GOP also wins the House, where they currently have the lead with 200 seats against the Democrats’ 180. The GOP only needs to win 13 of the remaining competitive races to take control of the lower chamber, and they are leading in 13 of them; the Democrats need 24 and are only up in six.