South Africa’s landmark election: Will the ANC be out?

A worker removes a campaign banner of South African president Cyril Ramaphosa after an African National Congress event ahead of the upcoming elections in Sandton, Johannesburg, South Africa, on May 25, 2024. ​

A worker removes a campaign banner of South African president Cyril Ramaphosa after an African National Congress event ahead of the upcoming elections in Sandton, Johannesburg, South Africa, on May 25, 2024.

REUTERS/James Oatway
South Africans vote this Wednesday in what is possibly the most significant election since the end of apartheid in 1994. Even with the support of older and rural voters, the ruling African National Congress, led by President Cyril Ramaphosa, could lose its majority for the first time. Despite leading South Africa to democracy under Nelson Mandela, the ANC now faces rising discontent due toan unemployment rate of 32%, a poverty rate of 50%, and myriad corruption scandals.

Over 50 parties are vying for the votes of the country’s 28 million citizens, but two of them could take South Africa in radically different directions. The first is the country’s main opposition party, the pro-business, mostly white-led, centrist Democratic Alliance. Leader John Steenhuisen has already gathered smaller opposition parties, including the Inkatha Freedom Party, to form the Multi-Party Charter for South Africa, pledging to combine their votes to challenge the ANC to form a government.

The second is the Marxist, Black-led Economic Freedom Fighters party, whose leader, former ANC politician Julius Malema,is calling for the nationalization of the country’s gold and platinum mines and the seizure of land from white farmers. Malema could be a kingmaker should the ANC need third-party support, a scenario Steenhuisen describes as“doomsday” for South Africa.

And while formerPresident Jacob Zuma cannot run in this year’s election due to convictions for corruption, observers see him as another potential kingmaker, wielding power behind the scenes through hisuMkhonto weSizwe Party.

Whatever the result, a coalition government would be inherently unstable. In the view of Eurasia analystZiyanda Stuurman, “I would expect such a government to collapse before the end of its term in 2029, requiring snap elections.”

More from GZERO Media

President Donald Trump speaks to the media as he leaves the White House for a trip to Florida on April 3, 2025.
Andrew Leyden/NurPhoto via Reuters

Stocks have plummeted, layoffs have begun, and confusion has metastasized about the bizarre method the United States used to calculate its tariff formula. But Donald Trump says it’s “going very well."

African National Congress (ANC) members of parliament react after South African lawmakers passed the budget's fiscal framework in Cape Town, South Africa, April 2, 2025.
REUTERS/Esa Alexander

The second largest party in South Africa’s coalition, the business-friendly Democratic Alliance, launched a legal challenge on Thursday to block a 0.5% VAT increase in the country’s new budget, raising concerns that the fragile government could collapse.

The Israeli Air Force launched an airstrike on Thursday, targeting a building in the Mashrou Dummar area of Damascus. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant confirmed Israel's responsibility for the attack, which resulted in one fatality.
Rami Alsayed via Reuters Connect
A man leaves the U.S. headquarters of the social media company TikTok in Culver City, California, U.S. January 17, 2025.
REUTERS/David Swanson

Remember the TikTok ban? The new deadline President Donald Trump set for the app to find an American buyer or be banned from US app stores, midnight Saturday, is rapidly approaching.

National Security Advisor Mike Waltz looks on as he sits next to US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in the Oval Office on March 13, 2025.

REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

Someone needs to take National Security Advisor Michael Waltz’s phone out of his hand.

President Donald Trump holds a "Foreign Trade Barriers" document as he delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2, 2025.

REUTERS/Carlos Barria

Donald Trump’s much-anticipated “liberation day” tariff announcement on Wednesday is the biggest disruption to global trade in decades, so the political, diplomatic, and economic impacts will take time to become clear.

Elon Musk waves to the crowd as he exits the stage during a town hall on Sunday, March 30, 2025, at the KI Convention Center in Green Bay, Wis.

Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin via Reuters

Donald Trump is reportedly telling people that he and Elon Musk have agreed that Musk’s work in the US government will soon be done. Politico’s story broke just as Musk seems to have discovered the electoral limits of his charm.