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Special elections showdown: Can Democrats pull off another surprise win?

March 31, 2025
Riley Callanan
U.S. President Donald Trump's adviser Elon Musk gives a check to an audience member during a rally in support of a conservative state Supreme Court candidate of an April 1 election in Green Bay, Wisconsin, U.S. March 30, 2025.
U.S. President Donald Trump's adviser Elon Musk gives a check to an audience member during a rally in support of a conservative state Supreme Court candidate of an April 1 election in Green Bay, Wisconsin, U.S. March 30, 2025.
REUTERS/Vincent Alban

Today, the US takes its political temperature as voters head to the polls for special elections in Florida and Wisconsin. Here’s what to know:

In Florida, Matt Gaetz’sseat is up for grabs, though it’s expected to stay in Republican hands. Meanwhile, after a leaked poll showed a surprisingly close race to replace Mike Waltz in Florida’s 6th Congressional District, the GOP is scrambling to defend a seat in an area Trump won by 30 points in November. Trump appeared at a town hall with GOP candidate Randy Fine on Thursday, while Elon Musk’s super PAC contributed $100,000 to the Florida races.

Still, even if by a tighter margin, Fine is expected to win the deep-red district. “Randy Fine will be a member of Congress,” said Republican Press Secretary Mike Marinella. “Everything else is just noise.”

In Wisconsin, meanwhile, voters will choose between a liberal and a conservative judge in a race that will determine whether the state’s Supreme Court keeps its 4-3 liberal majority. The contest is drawing national attention and is poised to be the most expensive in history, as the court prepares to rule on abortion laws, voting districts, and collective bargaining rights. Democrats are hoping these cases will turn out their base, and that Musk’s heavy presence in the race – he has held rallies and brought back his million dollar raffle strategy – could hurt the GOP’s candidate.

As the party in power, Republicans may struggle to drive turnout — it’s often easier for the losing side to mobilize voters in special elections. Earlier this year, Democrats flipped Trump-won seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania. While Wisconsin looks like a coin flip, early turnout in Florida’s 1st and 6th districts shows Republicans leading by 19 and nine points, dampening Democratic hopes for a surprise win in the Sunshine State.

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