Sunak fires the starting gun

Trailing the opposition Labour Party by 20 points for months, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has decided sooner is better than later to invite voters back to the polls. While standing in a driving rain in front of 10 Downing Street on Wednesday with the heckling of protesters in the background, he announced thatnational elections would be held on July 4.

For embattled leaders with the power to call elections, it’s all about the timing. In Sunak’s case, though his Conservative Party has trailed badly for months, some factors suggest things might only get worse in the fall. More migrant arrivals by boat over the summer will add to his political headaches, particularly if the government’s plan to fly some to Rwanda runs into more legal challenges and delays.

He does have some positive economic news to work with.Newly released data from the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday indicated that UK inflation fell to just 2.3% in April, allowing Sunak to say he kept his promise to cut inflation in half during his tenure.

Will Sunak’s earlier-than-expected election date help Tories stage a stunning comeback? Not likely, says Eurasia Group’s Mujtaba Rahman. Instead, he forecasts, “Labour will capitalize on the public’s desire for change after 14 years of Tory rule and will win a comfortable majority.”