In the Senate, Democrats are on the defensive, with Republicans only needing two new seats – or one seat plus the White House – to win control. Thirty-four seats are up for election, but the balance of power will likely be decided by just nine races: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Nebraska, and Texas.
In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic incumbent, is fighting to keep his seat in the solidly red state against Trump-backed Bernie Moreno, who is currently up by 8 points in the polls. Republicans are also close to flipping Montana – where the Democratic incumbent is down by 16 points – and are ahead in Nebraska by 19 points. In Texas, incumbent Ted Cruz is ahead by just 5 points against Rep. Colin Allred.
Democrats are ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona, but with razor-thin margins. At the most, they lead Nevada by 2 points and the rest of the states by 1 point or less.
Control of the House will likely be decided by 27 highly competitive races. Here, Republicans are on the defensive but could maintain control of the chamber by winning 12 of the 27 toss-up races. Key states to watch are California, where four Republicans will defend their seats in districts that voted for Joe Biden in 2020, and New York and New Jersey, where the two parties are duking it out for control of the suburbs.
There are 11 seats for governor up for grabs. In North Carolina, Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein is trying to maintain Democratic control of the Tar Heel State against Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who would be the state’s first Black governor if elected. New Hampshire and Washington are also holding competitive races.
While all eyes are focused on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win control of the White House, we’ll also be watching these down-ballot races to see which party wins control of the legislature for the next two years.