On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve will announce whether it'll further raise interest rates to tamp down inflation, which has eased in recent months yet remained at 5% in March, well above the 2% level that economists like. It's likely that the Fed will go for another 0.25 percentage point hike — taking interest rates to between 5% and 5.25%, the highest level in 16 years.
But that's not what economists and investors will most pay attention to.
They will surely obsess over every word that Fed Chair Jay Powell says in his speech after the rate decision is announced — looking for any signal that it’ll be the last hike of 2023. Yet, don't be surprised if Powell keeps his cards close to his chest amid stubbornly high inflation, fears of a looming US recession, and financial sector jitters after the collapse of First Republic Bank.
"Our base case is that the Fed will pause there and hold that rate through to at least the end of the year," says Eurasia Group analyst Robert Kahn. "But it'll be interesting to see how the Fed handles it. They're not going to want to give any kind of assurances."