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The Graphic Truth: Don't bet on it

October 30, 2022
Carlos Santamaria
and
Ari Winkleman
Chart comparing chances of Democrats keeping the Senate in the US midterms given by election forecasting site based on polls and a betting site.
Ari Winkleman

Will bookies be better than pollsters at predicting the results of the upcoming US midterm elections? We'll find out soon enough, but what we do know now is that bettors give the GOP better odds of both retaking the House and winning back control of the Senate. Oddly for a country crazy about sports betting, political gambling in America remains illegal for US citizens — although startup Kalshi is leading the charge for legalization. We compare how election forecasters and bookies view the chances of Democrats keeping the Senate.

Check out more coverage of the US midterms here.

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