Living Beyond Borders Articles
The Graphic Truth: How long might a US recession last?
A graphic showing the duration of recessions in the US since 1929.
GZERO Media
April 14, 2023
For months, we've been debating the odds of a looming inflation-fueled US recession. It hasn't happened yet — in no small part due to a tight jobs market. (For more on who makes the recession call, read our primer here.)
But the fact that it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean recession fears are over. In fact, economists believe it'll start as soon as cash-strapped businesses — faced with high interest rates to fight inflation — begin giving workers pink slips across the board. Still, it's more likely than not that when it comes, the recession will be not only mild (not triggering mass unemployment) but also historically short.
We take a look at the duration and cause of US recessions over the past century.
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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian displays a memorandum of understanding after signing it in Tehran, Iran, on June 18, 2026, after the document was signed by US President Donald Trump.
Iranian Presidency via ZUMA Press
The interim agreement to end the war, signed by both sides on Wednesday, appears to tilt toward Iran. But the regime remains vulnerable.
A displaced woman holds an Iranian flag as she makes her way back to her home in southern Lebanon, on the highway of Sidon, Lebanon, June 16, 2026.
REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra
On June 14, the US and Iran announced a deal to end the war. A signing ceremony is set for Friday. The terms include an immediate ceasefire on all fronts. With both sides spinning the deal as a victory, there are plenty of ways for this to go wrong.
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