Living Beyond Borders Articles
The Graphic Truth: How long might a US recession last?
A graphic showing the duration of recessions in the US since 1929.
GZERO Media
For months, we've been debating the odds of a looming inflation-fueled US recession. It hasn't happened yet — in no small part due to a tight jobs market. (For more on who makes the recession call, read our primer here.)
But the fact that it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean recession fears are over. In fact, economists believe it'll start as soon as cash-strapped businesses — faced with high interest rates to fight inflation — begin giving workers pink slips across the board. Still, it's more likely than not that when it comes, the recession will be not only mild (not triggering mass unemployment) but also historically short.
We take a look at the duration and cause of US recessions over the past century.
For sixteen years, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has won every fight: four consecutive parliamentary supermajorities for his party, Fidesz; a constitution rewritten to his specifications; courts, media, and oligarchs brought to heel.
In this “ask ian,” Ian Bremmer breaks down the newly announced two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran and whether it can hold.
Ivan Krastev explains how Viktor Orbán's economic survival depends not on Trump or Brussels, but on Beijing.