The Graphic Truth: Trump's polling gap 2016 vs 2020

October 21, 2020

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After Donald Trump won the 2016 US presidential election despite trailing his opponent Hillary Clinton during almost the entire campaign (and losing the popular vote to her as well), Trump supporters are gunning for a 2020 repeat of his last electoral college victory against Joe Biden, who has consistently led Trump in national polling for months. However, Biden's lead over Trump has been not only mostly larger than Clinton's, but also more consistent, and it has gradually widened as we approach Election Day on November 3. We compare both trajectories, highlighting a few key events that had an impact on Trump's national polling gap at the time with his Democratic challenger.

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Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer is flanked by Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof as he hosts a 'Coalition of the Willing' meeting of international partners on Ukraine at the Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO) in London, Britain, October 24, 2025.

Henry Nicholls/Pool via REUTERS

The Graphic Truth: Trump's polling gap 2016 vs 2020

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The Graphic Truth: Trump's polling gap 2016 vs 2020

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Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal

More from GZERO Media

Tristan Harris, co-founder of the Center for Humane Technology, joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World Podcast to talk about the risks of recklessly rolling out powerful AI tools without guardrails as big tech firms race to build “god in a box.”

The next leap in artificial intelligence is physical. On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down how robots and autonomous machines will transform daily life, if we can manage the risks that come with them.

This week’s song and dance over Ukraine. #PUPPETREGIME

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Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal

Think you know what's going on around the world? Here's your chance to prove it.

As we race toward the end of 2025, voters in over a dozen countries will head to the polls for elections that have major implications for their populations and political movements globally.

AI can accelerate solutions to global challenges, but the gap between potential and practice is widening. The challenge: unlock its promise while ensuring responsible governance. Subscribe to Bank of America Institute today to stay informed.