After Donald Trump won the 2016 US presidential election despite trailing his opponent Hillary Clinton during almost the entire campaign (and losing the popular vote to her as well), Trump supporters are gunning for a 2020 repeat of his last electoral college victory against Joe Biden, who has consistently led Trump in national polling for months. However, Biden's lead over Trump has been not only mostly larger than Clinton's, but also more consistent, and it has gradually widened as we approach Election Day on November 3. We compare both trajectories, highlighting a few key events that had an impact on Trump's national polling gap at the time with his Democratic challenger.

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Casino depicting things commonly bet on by political betters.
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The day before the United States and Israel struck Iran on February 28, more than 150 accounts on Polymarket correctly bet it would happen on that specific date.

Last week, Microsoft announced Microsoft Elevate for Changemakers, a new initiative designed to help nonprofit leaders confidently navigate the AI era. The program provides essential AI credentials, access to a peer community, and role-based resources to support responsible, mission-driven AI adoption. Part of Microsoft’s broader Elevate commitment, the initiative builds on the company’s 50-year legacy of supporting nonprofits worldwide. Microsoft partners with nearly one million nonprofit and education organizations globally and will deliver more than $5 billion in discounts, donations, and grants in the coming year. By equipping those closest to social challenges with the tools to lead, Microsoft Elevate for Changemakers helps ensure nonprofits remain at the forefront of AI-powered solutions. Read the full blog here.

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office, as U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum look on, on the day he signs an executive order, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 23, 2025.
REUTERS/Kent Nishimura

The US president has now suggested several times that the Iran war could end without reopening the Strait of Hormuz.