After Donald Trump won the 2016 US presidential election despite trailing his opponent Hillary Clinton during almost the entire campaign (and losing the popular vote to her as well), Trump supporters are gunning for a 2020 repeat of his last electoral college victory against Joe Biden, who has consistently led Trump in national polling for months. However, Biden's lead over Trump has been not only mostly larger than Clinton's, but also more consistent, and it has gradually widened as we approach Election Day on November 3. We compare both trajectories, highlighting a few key events that had an impact on Trump's national polling gap at the time with his Democratic challenger.

More For You

Smoke billows from southern Lebanon, following Israeli strikes, as seen from Nabatieh, Lebanon, June 4, 2026.
REUTERS/Stringer

Lebanon and Israel signed a ceasefire, but Hezbollah didn't, and that is a problem. With Netanyahu under pressure to escalate, Trump searching for a face-saving exit, and Iran unmoved by US muscle-flexing, the deadlock shows no signs of breaking.

US President Donald Trump listens to a question from a reporter prior to signing an executive order on AI next to Sriram Krishnan, Senior White House Policy Advisor on Artificial Intelligence, US Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and David Sacks, chair of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on December 11, 2025.

REUTERS/Al Drago

Artificial intelligence and Donald Trump's foreign policy are creating huge tail risks for markets.