The Graphic Truth: US interest rates vs. inflation

A graph comparing the US Federal Funds Effective Interest Rate with the year-on-year percentage change in inflation.
A graph comparing the US Federal Funds Effective Interest Rate with the year-on-year percentage change in inflation.
Luisa Vieira

All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve, as it is set to announce Wednesday whether it’ll raise interest rates amid the recent banking turbulence.

The Fed’s decision will hinge on what central bankers think is a bigger priority: fighting inflation or stabilizing the financial sector following the recent collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

While it could stay the course in its inflation fight with another rate hike, the Fed is coming under growing pressure to ease investors’ anxieties by leaving interest rates be. But doing that risks giving in — temporarily, at least — to lasting inflation. The longer the Fed waits to control rising prices, the worse chance it has to reach its 2-3% inflation target without triggering a recession.

Also, high-interest rates are partly to blame for the recent financial turmoil on both sides of the Atlantic. Right-leaning critics argue that near-zero rates for too long made lending too cheap. Meanwhile, some on the left say that raising rates too quickly made borrowing too expensive, hurting the balance sheets of banks like SVB.

What do you think the Fed’s next move should be? Let us know here.

More from GZERO Media

Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump's nominee to be secretary of defense, gestures as he leaves a Senate Committee on Armed Services confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, on Jan. 14, 2025.
REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump’s pick for defense secretary, appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday. Dems grilled him on allegations of misconduct and his history of opposing women in the military, while Republicans applauded his performance. Is he likely to be confirmed?

President Donald Trump talks with Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a North Atlantic Treaty Organization Plenary Session at the NATO summit back in 2019.
REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Incoming US President Donald Trumpposted on Tuesday that he will create an “External Revenue Service” to oversee his planned trade tariffs, underlining his commitment to these policies – much to the chagrin of America’s neighbors.

Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on a beachfront cafe amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Deir Al-Balah, Gaza Strip, on January 14, 2025.
(Photo by Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto) via Reuters

After months of negotiations mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar, Hamas on Tuesday accepted a draft ceasefire agreement that could bring an end to the fighting in Gaza – at least temporarily – if Israel’s cabinet approves it.

President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with House Republicans at the Hyatt Regency hotel in Washington, DC, on Nov. 13, 2024.

ALLISON ROBBERT/Pool via REUTERS

In just under a week, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States. These final days of Biden’s administration mark the very end of the calm before the storm.

- YouTube

A Gaza ceasefire has gained momentum. What is the likelihood a deal will be reached soon? What do I make of a potential sale of TikTok to Elon Musk? What does Lebanon's new president mean for Hezbollah? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

When his daughter was born, Johnny was able to use Walmart’s paid parental leave to spend six weeks bonding with her: “I’m a living example of the benefits Walmart provides.” Walmart’s comprehensive benefits — including paid parental leave, healthcare, tuition coverage, and more — help associates live better at work and at home. With a $1 billion investment in career-driven training and development, Walmart is creating pathways to higher-paying, higher-skilled jobs, so associates like Johnny can build better lives for themselves and their families. Learn why it pays to work at Walmart.

As we look ahead to the next four years, there are many reasons to be optimistic about the role of American AI. The path forward demands collaboration across all sectors, and Microsoft is ready to help chart this course. At Microsoft, we envision a three-pronged approach. First, the US must advance AI technology and infrastructure to maintain its global leadership. Second, it’s critical to expand skilling initiatives to equip the workforce for an AI-powered future. Finally, exporting American AI innovation to allied nations will not only strengthen international partnerships but also bolster domestic economic growth. Realizing this vision requires a unified effort from government, industry, and educational institutions, and Microsoft is committed to playing a key role in this journey. You can learn more here.